Difference between revisions of "UK citizen army Preparing the prewar generation for conflict"

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<p>While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says&nbsp;the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". Professor Clarke said&nbsp;the downfall of Mr Putin was only a matter of time and would&nbsp;likely be brought about from within the military and Russia's security service, with the support of oligarchs fed up with the Kremlin. Or Mr Putin could resort to more-drastic measures, including the use of nuclear weapons,&nbsp;Dr&nbsp;Oliker warns. "The Ukrainians, I think, have confounded most expectations —&nbsp;[but], I think, this is all contingent on Western support continuing," King's College London&nbsp;professor of conflict and security&nbsp;Tracey German said. While Ukrainian forces&nbsp;still have momentum, Russia&nbsp;currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukraine, including&nbsp;much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>At the same time, it remains vulnerable and is fighting a war where military realism and grand strategy will be far more important than in other recent wars. This time, the United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia that directly affects U.S. security and that of many of its closest and most important strategic partners. It is far from clear that any form of end to the fighting can prevent a new Cold War that will last at least as long as anyone like Putin leads Russia. Nevertheless, an effective grand strategy must still end the fighting and achieve real peace.</p><br /><br /><h2>Billions in weapons pledged for Ukraine but uncertainty hangs over German tanks</h2><br /><br /><p>In practice the problem was that the Ukrainians had been encouraged to embrace a western manoeuvre concept but without the capacity to make it work, which left them too dependent on the Russian army being in a weakened and demoralised state. The Ukrainians reverted to the sort of smaller-scale operations that they understood better. This meant however that progress was slow, giving the Russians time to reinforce areas coming under threat. Without improved coordination between units it was difficult to scale up the effects and take advantage of any breakthroughs. Senior Ukrainians are still doing their best to manage expectations about the summer offensive. They believe some of their Western allies, as well as supporters in the media, have become over-excited about Ukraine's army and its Nato equipment.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>But another McCarthy concession — a procedure allowing 218 members to force a House floor vote on any bill — could present an opportunity for pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats to pass additional funding for Kyiv. But Smith also said ATACMS producer Lockheed Martin no longer makes the missiles, and the U.S. military still needs them in its stockpiles. “Everything I have come to learn about the will and determination of the Ukrainians leads me to conclude retaking Crimea is within reach, and they need the artillery that will enable hitting targets — the sites of missiles destroying infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said. Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals. After imposing sanctions and export controls, Lichfield expects the West’s latest economic pressure point — oil price caps — to yield results because the Russian economy is so tightly linked to the energy market.</p><br /><br /><h3>Long war</h3><br /><br /><p>“The civil war in Northern Ireland ended partly because outside powers [the US in particular] put a lot of pressure and helped to build a framework [for peace]”. To keep up the military effort, Putin may need further mobilisation (something he said at his press conference not to be necessary). This is not a prediction but it would not wholly be a surprise if he decided that this was as good a moment as any to suggest the possibility of a ceasefire arrangement. Otherwise he would be stuck with many more months of war without tangible progress and a growing sense of futility.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>The Russian side hasn't escalated as much as it&nbsp;can, analysts say, and another offensive aligns&nbsp;with Mr Putin's strategy to double down when backed into a corner. Mr Putin has already&nbsp;annexed the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia&nbsp;through so-called referendums after pulling&nbsp;back troops to regroup in eastern Ukraine. And some prominent Republicans —&nbsp;who&nbsp;took over the House from the Democrats in January —&nbsp;have called for an end to US&nbsp;military and other assistance to Ukraine. If Ukraine manages to clear some of those hurdles, its forces&nbsp;could be in a position by July&nbsp;to retake large portions&nbsp;of land,&nbsp;according to the Royal United Services Institute's former director, Professor Michael Clarke. "It's certainly what the Ukrainians are betting on," International Crisis Group's director of the Europe and Central Asia program, Olya Oliker, said.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular the war started by Moscow. Ukraine disrupted Russia's operations around occupied Crimea, damaging Russian radars, air defense and ships on the Black Sea. Ukrainians troops have also broken through Russian defenses on the Dnipro River. In the fall, Azerbaijani forces defeated Armenian troops and recaptured the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh, three decades after Baku had suffered a military defeat to Armenia. But as GOP lawmakers fight for immigration reform, particularly on the U.S. southern border, ahead of financial support for Ukraine, "it would not be unreasonable to expect Biden to, at the very least, attempt to extend the conflict into 2025."</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, laying the groundwork for a serious effort to negotiate real peace offers at least some chance of changing Russian and Ukrainian positions over time.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Germany alone remains a critical power vacuum, but most of the nations in NATO have major problems in war fighting and forward deployment capability and uncertain plans for modernization.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>BBC correspondent James Waterhouse said Russia had increased its artillery and air strikes as well as missile attacks - gaining ground mile by mile in Luhansk while the Ukrainians are forced to retreat.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>At the same time, much depends on the ability of the United States and its partners to find some approach to grand strategy that can negotiate an acceptable end to the fighting and create a stable outcome to the war. Here again, the United States has failed to form effective grand strategies for achieving successful outcomes for its recent wars. Far too much of the current mix of sporadic military efforts to improve national military forces is, ad hoc, poorly coordinated, and uncertain.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>It is clear to the most dispassionate observer of the war that Ukraine is having to fight very hard, and take casualties in troops and equipment, including the armour supplied by Nato. It started, they said, with his disastrous decision to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. [https://etextpad.com/ https://etextpad.com/] , and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>If the West remains united with Ukraine, it could make the costs of the war so insurmountable for Russia that it breaks the level of commitment of its political elite.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>If the United States falters in dealing with Ukraine, it will lose security and influence relative to two great powers by failing to pay the price of dealing with even one.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Now the U.S. and European militaries are training Ukrainian forces in Europe.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The historical ratio in the last hundred and fifty years has been around three or four to one.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>If Moscow persisted in its war, the West may continue to arm Ukraine, enforce biting sanctions, and control some $300 billion in Russian financial assets.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. If Putin now feels more confident it is because he weathered that particular storm. But it leaves a lingering “what if” question about the effect on the Russian system had there been more Ukrainian success or for that matter if the next mutineer has a clearer idea of what he is trying to achieve.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>A war where both sides fight to the point of exhaustion might be no better.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>This does not mean, however, that the United States and its European allies do not start now to work for the kind of settlement that might lead to real peace.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Kyiv has reclaimed more than half of the land Russia had captured since the start of the war in February 2022 and grabbed headlines by liberating villages and towns in the south and east.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"If the Russian spring offensive&nbsp;was successful …&nbsp;they could possibly take all of the area west and [to] the east of the Dnieper River, and then make a puppet state out of what's left of Ukraine," Professor Clarke added.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul>
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<p>Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. To train and equip that larger army would inevitably require more money. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland.</p><br /><br /><h2>When will the war in Ukraine end? One year on, we answer your questions about the conflict</h2><br /><br /><p>But, said Macmillan, “the first world war laid the groundwork that made the second possible”. The danger lay in a humiliating peace treaty imposed on defeated Germany. Meanwhile, Western powers have pledged coveted battle tanks to Ukraine, and there is much talk of a new Russian spring offensive.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>“I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.</p><br /><br /><h3>Costs of war</h3><br /><br /><p>Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already led to a crisis—not only for Ukraine but also for the Kremlin. As Russian troops have advanced toward Kyiv, the European Union and the United States have responded with dramatic financial punishments that could deep-freeze the Russian economy and send inflation on an upward spiral. We’re still looking at a range of possibilities, including de-escalation and a great-power conflict. While the relief of a ceasefire would be welcome, it could have unwelcome consequences, too. As in the years after the initial invasion of Ukraine, a prolonged stalemate could just give space and capacity for Russia to re-strategise and reinvest in its military – which could ultimately lead to an even lengthier war. While [https://etextpad.com/ https://etextpad.com/] might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be "devastated" in the process, the strategists said.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Either the Russian military’s transition to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets succeeds in eroding Ukrainian resistance, or battlefield casualties and domestic economic woes succeed in defeating Russia’s will to fight. Neither outcome is likely in the coming weeks and months, meaning people around the world are left to watch the horrors of war unfold, and wait. Russia would retain its land corridor to Crimea, even if with some concessions to Ukraine. It would receive a guarantee that the water canals flowing southward to that peninsula from the city of Kherson, which would revert to Ukrainian control, would never again be blocked. Russia would not annex the “republics” it created in the Donbas in 2014 and would withdraw from some of the additional land it’s seized there.</p><br /><br /><h2>How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end</h2><br /><br /><p>The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies. Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>They have also created a patchy land corridor connecting Crimea to Russia for the first time since that area was taken in 2014.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>When I combine that with an analysis of Russia’s operational ease, I think the most reasonable thing that we could be expecting right now is regime change in Kyiv.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>He noted that it's a "non-starter" for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine "because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III."</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year. But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high. That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power.</p><br /><br />

Revision as of 10:57, 2 February 2024

Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. To train and equip that larger army would inevitably require more money. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when.







Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland.



When will the war in Ukraine end? One year on, we answer your questions about the conflict



But, said Macmillan, “the first world war laid the groundwork that made the second possible”. The danger lay in a humiliating peace treaty imposed on defeated Germany. Meanwhile, Western powers have pledged coveted battle tanks to Ukraine, and there is much talk of a new Russian spring offensive.











  • Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles.








  • Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members.








  • Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned.








  • That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West.










“I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.



Costs of war



Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already led to a crisis—not only for Ukraine but also for the Kremlin. As Russian troops have advanced toward Kyiv, the European Union and the United States have responded with dramatic financial punishments that could deep-freeze the Russian economy and send inflation on an upward spiral. We’re still looking at a range of possibilities, including de-escalation and a great-power conflict. While the relief of a ceasefire would be welcome, it could have unwelcome consequences, too. As in the years after the initial invasion of Ukraine, a prolonged stalemate could just give space and capacity for Russia to re-strategise and reinvest in its military – which could ultimately lead to an even lengthier war. While https://etextpad.com/ might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be "devastated" in the process, the strategists said.





Either the Russian military’s transition to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets succeeds in eroding Ukrainian resistance, or battlefield casualties and domestic economic woes succeed in defeating Russia’s will to fight. Neither outcome is likely in the coming weeks and months, meaning people around the world are left to watch the horrors of war unfold, and wait. Russia would retain its land corridor to Crimea, even if with some concessions to Ukraine. It would receive a guarantee that the water canals flowing southward to that peninsula from the city of Kherson, which would revert to Ukrainian control, would never again be blocked. Russia would not annex the “republics” it created in the Donbas in 2014 and would withdraw from some of the additional land it’s seized there.



How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end



The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies. Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers.











  • Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration.








  • They have also created a patchy land corridor connecting Crimea to Russia for the first time since that area was taken in 2014.








  • When I combine that with an analysis of Russia’s operational ease, I think the most reasonable thing that we could be expecting right now is regime change in Kyiv.








  • He noted that it's a "non-starter" for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine "because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III."










The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year. But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high. That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power.



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