How will Russias war with Ukraine end Here are 5 possible outcomes

"The world has changed. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era," he said. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help "as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation." " https://diigo.com/0vzyql will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin's brutality for all to see."

While the Chinese leader is committed to at least rough alignment with Putin, his fear of sanctions and international isolation will likely limit that solidarity. Besides buying Russian commodities, for example, China could forge closer technology ties since Russia has been cut off from semiconductors and other high-tech goods by Western, Japanese, and Taiwanese sanctions. But China itself is a major importer of semiconductors and may not be able to replace some high-end chips that Russia will need. But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might. While Russia has occupied swathes of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than anyone expected and often humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion forces that, on paper, were meant to overwhelm Ukraine in days. So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia.

The state of the war

Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine talks are taking the form of classical diplomacy negotiations between states mediated by politicians. Negotiations can be facilitated more actively, and ideally international experts on peace mediation should be involved as quickly as possible. Adding a democratic Ukraine in NATO would mark the utter and permanent defeat of Putin’s crusade to absorb it into a Russian empire. Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change. The invasion is likely to have major effects on people around the world. Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leaving millions of people fearing for their futures.

• The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.









• Over the holiday period, Russia continued its daily attacks against mostly civilian targets in Ukraine.









• However, Ukraine would be highly unlikely to formally cede any territory, given popular support for resistance to the Russian invasion.









• Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory.









• And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back." According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war. This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war. The obvious strategy is to try to break the road and rail corridor linking Russia proper to occupied Crimea, so cutting off the peninsula from its hinterland, with an attack towards Melitopol or Berdansk. Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

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Jones said that there were big risks involved in using nuclear weapons, especially if Putin detonates them in territories he has been claiming are Russian. There would also be a risk of nuclear fallout on Russian territory due to proximity. Russia would not seek to begin any new large-scale offensive into Ukrainian territory at this time and would take the time to build back up its fighting capabilities, the think tank said.

• Russia has shown zero interest in making concessions that would come close to the minimal requirements of Ukraine and its allies.









• Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes.









• Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.

Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.

Ukraine is fighting back

Jones said it is important to note that Ukraine has already achieved a significant victory in preventing Russia from achieving that goal. When it began its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia's goal was to take over the country completely. If the fighting reaches a stalemate, there could be some negotiated, temporary cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, according to Seth Jones, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, International Security Program.

While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". "The elites and potential successors are watching [Putin's] every military move, but they can already see that he has no place in their post-war vision of the future," Russian journalist Andrey Pertsev wrote in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment. However, the man dubbed "Putin's chef" has also been a vocal opponent of the Kremlin's inner circle in recent months in a sign that power may be shifting among Russia's political class. Both sides could engage in a "step-by-step approach to a temporary peace", unfolding in a similar way to previous conflicts, including Cyprus after 1974 and Korea after 1954, Professor Clarke added. "From a Ukrainian perspective … after the losses that they have endured, particularly over the last year, the question will be … 'Why would they want to seek to negotiate over what is their recognised territory?'" Ms German said.

• It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both.









• But only if there is political will, and that is something Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of not having.









• If past is prologue, they are likely to play the West and a Sino-Russian pole against each other for advantage, depending on the issue.

In the space of a fortnight, Natalie Taranec went from teaching at a school in Kyiv to making a desperate dash to the sanctuary city of Lviv and fleeing to another country. Under the cover of darkness on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin acted on a long-held ambition, rolling his tanks across the border and disrupting the lives of 44 million people. Western countries and experts are divided on how seriously to take the threats.

“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.

The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?