Difference between revisions of "How will Russias war with Ukraine end Here are 5 possible outcomes"

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<p>Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, also called for sending long-range missiles to Ukraine alongside advanced Gray Eagle and Reaper drones. Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals. Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained. For example, the tactic of repurposing dishwasher electronics for weapons, mocked in the West as a sign of desperation, probably means “somebody thought about that from the beginning,” he said. In the course of the past year, Putin’s domestic propaganda strategy has morphed from a message of “fight the Nazis” in Ukraine to “fight the West” there, said Stefan Meister, a Russia and Eastern Europe expert at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But the sizable swaths of terrain Ukraine wants to liberate will take time, and to even build the necessary forces will take six months, Donahoe estimated.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Countries on the EU's (and NATO's) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for the conflict to spill over into their own territories.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war. The reason why this is called “imperial overreach” is because a common thing that happens with a lot of empire endeavors is you overextend yourself and create an ungovernable entity. That is the risk that this scenario poses, let alone the challenge of having enough military success to do the conquering.</p><br /><br /><h2>EU to review UNRWA funding, calls for staff probe after allegations</h2><br /><br /><p>But the sizable swaths of terrain Ukraine wants to liberate will take time, and to even build the necessary forces will take six months, Donahoe estimated. But this winter, they’re expected to launch attacks across open plains, which would be harder to defeat, said Daniel Rice, a former U.S. Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets. In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In a matter of days, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has escalated to one of the biggest military conflicts in Europe since the second world war.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Most of its people do not want their country to become part of Russia.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Still, the botched northern campaign and the serial failures of a military that had been infused with vast sums of money and supposedly subjected to widespread modernization and reform was stunning.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Russia began the war with what seemed to be a massive advantage by any imaginable measure—from gross domestic product (GDP) to numbers of warplanes, tanks, artillery, warships, and missiles. Little wonder, perhaps, that Putin assumed his troops would take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within weeks, at most. Western military experts were convinced that his army would make quick work of its Ukrainian counterpart, even if the latter’s military had, since 2015, been trained and armed by the United States, Britain, and Canada. It’s easy to forget just how daring (or rash) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was. After all, Russia aside, Ukraine is Europe’s biggest country in land area and its sixth-largest in population. True, Putin had acted aggressively before, but on a far more modest and careful scale, annexing Crimea and fostering the rise of two breakaway enclaves in parts of Donbas, the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk, which are industrial and resource-rich areas adjoining Russia.</p><br /><br /><p>Many experts I consulted were pessimistic about the prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war in the foreseeable future. But a couple offered scenarios for what such a settlement could look like, portraying them as more guesswork than predictions. The United States might have to push to reform outdated elements of the world’s security architecture, such as the UN Security Council, so that they no longer reflect a bygone era in which a small group of big powers got to determine the course of international affairs.</p><br /><br /><h3>Invasion of Ukraine</h3><br /><br /><p>Putin illegally annexed four territories from Ukraine in September and now presents Ukraine's efforts — backed by the West — to take back its own territory as a fascist attack on the Russian homeland. Ukraine expert Terrell Jermaine Starr recently told me, "every step that Ukrainians took towards Europe came as a direct result of Russian aggression." Whether you're looking back, trying to make sense, or looking ahead, searching for hope, our reporters are here to help you sort through it. Eight human rights activists have been given long prison sentences for anti-government protests in Turkey.</p><br /><br /><p>Neither was his 2015 intervention in Syria to save the government of Bashar al-Assad a wild-eyed gamble. [https://pastelink.net/j2fnexxl https://pastelink.net/j2fnexxl] deployed no ground troops there, relying solely on airstrikes and missile attacks to avoid an Afghanistan-style quagmire. But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Putin’s disastrous military campaign has diplomatically diminished Russia as it turns to North Korea and Iran.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia. Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. Western powers are acutely aware this crisis is being closely watched by the rest of the world. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations. In 1994, the UK - along with the US - signed a memorandum at an international conference in Budapest promising "to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine".</p><br /><br /><h3>VIDEO: People in Denmark Are a Lot Happier Than People in the United States. Here’s Why.</h3><br /><br /><p>So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia. But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>While the relief of a ceasefire would be welcome, it could have unwelcome consequences, too.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And sadly enough, no one who matters seems to be thinking about them.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukraine has fought with great courage to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>As Gen Sir Patrick Sanders stated several times in his speech on Wednesday, "Ukraine really matters".</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Instead, over the past year Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully pushed back the invading troops.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>There remains speculation that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck. He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance. While the bipartisan majority of lawmakers support arming Kyiv, 57 Republicans voted against a $40 billion emergency aid supplemental in May. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But European nations closer to Russian borders appear to be taking it more seriously.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, Ukraine would be highly unlikely to formally cede any territory, given popular support for resistance to the Russian invasion.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>It is the duty of the military to analyse that threat, and they still might be proved wrong. But European nations closer to Russian borders appear to be taking it more seriously. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has focussed the West's military minds. UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Putin’s disastrous military campaign has diplomatically diminished Russia as it turns to North Korea and Iran.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>And sadly enough, no one who matters seems to be thinking about them. The simple fact is that, in 2022, with so much headed in the wrong direction, a major war is the last thing this planet needs. Still, assume for a moment that Putin does depart, voluntarily or otherwise. One possibility is that he would be replaced by someone from his inner circle who then would make big concessions to end the war, perhaps even a return to the pre-invasion status quo with tweaks. But why would he (and it will certainly be a male) do that if Russia controls large swathes of Ukrainian land? A new Russian leader might eventually cut a deal, providing sanctions are lifted, but assuming that Putin’s exit would be a magic bullet is unrealistic.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. "But if Central/Eastern Europe felt abandoned by those powers, it's not hard to imagine a Polish or even a Ukrainian nuclear programme." This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says.</p>
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<p>"The world has changed. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era," he said. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help "as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation." " [https://diigo.com/0vzyql https://diigo.com/0vzyql] will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin's brutality for all to see."</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>While the Chinese leader is committed to at least rough alignment with Putin, his fear of sanctions and international isolation will likely limit that solidarity. Besides buying Russian commodities, for example, China could forge closer technology ties since Russia has been cut off from semiconductors and other high-tech goods by Western, Japanese, and Taiwanese sanctions. But China itself is a major importer of semiconductors and may not be able to replace some high-end chips that Russia will need. But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might. While Russia has occupied swathes of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than anyone expected and often humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion forces that, on paper, were meant to overwhelm Ukraine in days. So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia.</p><br /><br /><h2>The state of the war</h2><br /><br /><p>Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine talks are taking the form of classical diplomacy negotiations between states mediated by politicians. Negotiations can be facilitated more actively, and ideally international experts on peace mediation should be involved as quickly as possible. Adding a democratic Ukraine in NATO would mark the utter and permanent defeat of Putin’s crusade to absorb it into a Russian empire. Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change. The invasion is likely to have major effects on people around the world. Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leaving millions of people fearing for their futures.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Over the holiday period, Russia continued its daily attacks against mostly civilian targets in Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, Ukraine would be highly unlikely to formally cede any territory, given popular support for resistance to the Russian invasion.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>"We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back." According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war. This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war. The obvious strategy is to try to break the road and rail corridor linking Russia proper to occupied Crimea, so cutting off the peninsula from its hinterland, with an attack towards Melitopol or Berdansk. Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.</p><br /><br /><h3>Production cuts on the cards at WA's biggest lithium mine as critical minerals slump continues</h3><br /><br /><p>Jones said that there were big risks involved in using nuclear weapons, especially if Putin detonates them in territories he has been claiming are Russian. There would also be a risk of nuclear fallout on Russian territory due to proximity. Russia would not seek to begin any new large-scale offensive into Ukrainian territory at this time and would take the time to build back up its fighting capabilities, the think tank said.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia has shown zero interest in making concessions that would come close to the minimal requirements of Ukraine and its allies.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.</p><br /><br /><h3>Ukraine is fighting back</h3><br /><br /><p>Jones said it is important to note that Ukraine has already achieved a significant victory in preventing Russia from achieving that goal. When it began its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia's goal was to take over the country completely. If the fighting reaches a stalemate, there could be some negotiated, temporary cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, according to Seth Jones, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, International Security Program.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says&nbsp;the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". "The elites and potential successors are watching [Putin's] every military move, but they can already see that he has no place in their post-war vision of the future," Russian journalist Andrey Pertsev wrote in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment. However, the man dubbed "Putin's chef" has also been a&nbsp;vocal opponent of the Kremlin's inner circle in recent months in a sign that power may be shifting among Russia's political class. Both sides&nbsp;could engage in a "step-by-step approach to a temporary peace", unfolding in a similar way to previous conflicts, including Cyprus&nbsp;after 1974 and&nbsp;Korea&nbsp;after 1954,&nbsp;Professor Clarke added. "From a Ukrainian perspective …&nbsp;after&nbsp;the losses that they have endured, particularly over the last year, the question will be … 'Why would they want to seek to negotiate over what is their recognised territory?'" Ms German said.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But only if there is political will, and that is something Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of not having.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>If past is prologue, they are likely to play the West and a Sino-Russian pole against each other for advantage, depending on the issue.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>In the space of a fortnight, Natalie Taranec went&nbsp;from teaching at a school in Kyiv to making a desperate dash to the sanctuary city of Lviv and fleeing to another country. Under the cover of darkness on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin acted on a long-held ambition, rolling his tanks across the border and&nbsp;disrupting the lives of 44 million people. Western countries and experts are divided on how seriously to take the threats.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and&nbsp;U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?</p>

Latest revision as of 03:25, 23 April 2024

"The world has changed. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era," he said. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help "as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation." " https://diigo.com/0vzyql will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin's brutality for all to see."





While the Chinese leader is committed to at least rough alignment with Putin, his fear of sanctions and international isolation will likely limit that solidarity. Besides buying Russian commodities, for example, China could forge closer technology ties since Russia has been cut off from semiconductors and other high-tech goods by Western, Japanese, and Taiwanese sanctions. But China itself is a major importer of semiconductors and may not be able to replace some high-end chips that Russia will need. But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might. While Russia has occupied swathes of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than anyone expected and often humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion forces that, on paper, were meant to overwhelm Ukraine in days. So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia.



The state of the war



Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine talks are taking the form of classical diplomacy negotiations between states mediated by politicians. Negotiations can be facilitated more actively, and ideally international experts on peace mediation should be involved as quickly as possible. Adding a democratic Ukraine in NATO would mark the utter and permanent defeat of Putin’s crusade to absorb it into a Russian empire. Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change. The invasion is likely to have major effects on people around the world. Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leaving millions of people fearing for their futures.











  • The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.








  • Over the holiday period, Russia continued its daily attacks against mostly civilian targets in Ukraine.








  • However, Ukraine would be highly unlikely to formally cede any territory, given popular support for resistance to the Russian invasion.








  • Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory.








  • And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.










"We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back." According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war. This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war. The obvious strategy is to try to break the road and rail corridor linking Russia proper to occupied Crimea, so cutting off the peninsula from its hinterland, with an attack towards Melitopol or Berdansk. Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.



Production cuts on the cards at WA's biggest lithium mine as critical minerals slump continues



Jones said that there were big risks involved in using nuclear weapons, especially if Putin detonates them in territories he has been claiming are Russian. There would also be a risk of nuclear fallout on Russian territory due to proximity. Russia would not seek to begin any new large-scale offensive into Ukrainian territory at this time and would take the time to build back up its fighting capabilities, the think tank said.











  • Russia has shown zero interest in making concessions that would come close to the minimal requirements of Ukraine and its allies.








  • Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes.








  • Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.










Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.



Ukraine is fighting back



Jones said it is important to note that Ukraine has already achieved a significant victory in preventing Russia from achieving that goal. When it began its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia's goal was to take over the country completely. If the fighting reaches a stalemate, there could be some negotiated, temporary cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, according to Seth Jones, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, International Security Program.







While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". "The elites and potential successors are watching [Putin's] every military move, but they can already see that he has no place in their post-war vision of the future," Russian journalist Andrey Pertsev wrote in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment. However, the man dubbed "Putin's chef" has also been a vocal opponent of the Kremlin's inner circle in recent months in a sign that power may be shifting among Russia's political class. Both sides could engage in a "step-by-step approach to a temporary peace", unfolding in a similar way to previous conflicts, including Cyprus after 1974 and Korea after 1954, Professor Clarke added. "From a Ukrainian perspective … after the losses that they have endured, particularly over the last year, the question will be … 'Why would they want to seek to negotiate over what is their recognised territory?'" Ms German said.











  • It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both.








  • But only if there is political will, and that is something Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of not having.








  • If past is prologue, they are likely to play the West and a Sino-Russian pole against each other for advantage, depending on the issue.










In the space of a fortnight, Natalie Taranec went from teaching at a school in Kyiv to making a desperate dash to the sanctuary city of Lviv and fleeing to another country. Under the cover of darkness on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin acted on a long-held ambition, rolling his tanks across the border and disrupting the lives of 44 million people. Western countries and experts are divided on how seriously to take the threats.





“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.





The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?

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