Difference between revisions of "Kremlin Denies Report Putin Reached Out to the US About Ending Ukraine War"

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<p>Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. It is almost two years since Russia's invasion but the situation on the ground has changed little in recent months - despite Ukraine's counter-offensive, which began in June.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>24 territory as they can get, force Putin to the bargaining table, and then ultimately Ukraine would have to compromise somewhat on issues like Crimea and portions of the east and arrange for solid security guarantees going forward,” Smith told Defense News in a phone interview. The Ukrainian General Staff says its forces have repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka itself, as well as from settlements to the north west, south west, and directly west of the town. Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin all had to keep their armies moving in the face of a steppes winter, and now - his invasion going backwards on the ground - Vladimir Putin is digging his forces in for the winter to await a new Russian offensive in the spring.</p><br /><br /><h2>Western exhaustion</h2><br /><br /><p>In explaining why, Reiter pointed to “the heavy diplomatic costs of [Russia] using nuclear weapons, the lack of military utility of using nuclear weapons,” and the risk that such use would “increase NATO military involvement” in the war. [https://anotepad.com/notes/yds2qhbe https://anotepad.com/notes/yds2qhbe] , a historian of Eastern Europe at Yale, told me he stands by an assessment he made in October in which he similarly argued that a Russian nuclear detonation was highly unlikely. “We are drawn to this scenario, in part, because we seem to lack other variants, and it feels like an ending,” he wrote at the time. More likely, Snyder argues, Putin is trying to instill fear in order to buy his military time and undermine international support for Ukraine. That effort would require extensive U.S. involvement as well, and could serve as a springboard for China to assert itself as a diplomatic power, as the United States did during peace talks after World War I.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia. But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute.</p><br /><br /><h3>Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 703</h3><br /><br /><p>But a couple offered scenarios for what such a settlement could look like, portraying them as more guesswork than predictions. Persuading countries in regions such as Africa and the Middle East to deny Russia its imperial schemes will require a major shift in how the United States and its allies describe the stakes of the war and even in how they articulate their broader worldview, Hill argued. Rather than framing the war as a struggle between democracies and autocracies or East versus West, U.S. and European leaders should make the case that the Kremlin, in its thirst for empire, has “violated the UN Charter [and] international laws” that keep other countries safe as well. “If leaders explain the stakes and the costs, this is a manageable burden,” he told me.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>He said he aimed to make Russia a "great, peaceful and free country". Mr Nadezhdin, who name is similar to "nadezhda", the Russian word for hope, said he had the support of "dozens of millions of people". Opposition leader Alexey Navalny, once seen as a major threat to the president's authority, has been in jail since 2021. He has won several presidential elections comfortably, but in recent years no serious opposition has been allowed.</p><br /><br /><h3>Ukraine: what will end the war? Here’s what research&nbsp;says</h3><br /><br /><p>The Ukrainians reverted to the sort of smaller-scale operations that they understood better. This meant however that progress was slow, giving the Russians time to reinforce areas coming under threat. Without improved coordination between units it was difficult to scale up the effects and take advantage of any breakthroughs.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>The gloves are off, the pretences dropped, diplomacy is dead - at least for now. Ukraine is under full-scale Russian invasion and is fighting for its very survival. Adding a democratic Ukraine in NATO would mark the utter and permanent defeat of Putin’s crusade to absorb it into a Russian empire. Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change.</p><br /><br /><p>After a year in which both sides looked forward to military advances and were disappointed, this new year starts with expectations so low that the only way we can possibly be surprised is by developments that get us closer to a resolution. By the end of July there was no point in pretending that all was going well. One problem is it leads to playing down the benefits the US has always got in its conventional operations from superior firepower.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"But it might not destroy the Ukrainian government - provided it has made plans to set up a new government HQ, most likely in the western part of the country."</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Regardless of a country’s government style, a leader is still dependent upon the support of a group of people, or coalition, to stay in power.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <li>This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion.</li><br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Kyiv will be reluctant to halt when the immediate prize is so great. Ukrainian offensives might, nevertheless, pause down in the south-west, following the recovery of Kherson. At least 10,000 civilians, including over 560 children, have been killed and more than 18,500 injured since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission there said on Tuesday. Also briefing the 15-member Security Council, Ramesh Rajasingham, Director of Coordination, at the UN humanitarian affairs office (OCHA), said that millions of civilians in Ukraine, including women and children, are staring at the prospect of yet another winter of severe hardship. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders?</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Never,” United States President Joe Biden said in Poland last week, a day after a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <li>Yet Ukraine’s choices are in turn shaped by what the West will provide.</li><br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>He would no doubt like some tangible victory before then – say the capture of all the Donbas that would allow him to argue that core objectives have been met. If there has not been any progress then at least he should take stock. The winter will be over and he can see what territory, if any, has been taken. The effectiveness of the drone and missile attacks on Ukraine can be judged.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion. But it was largely because of the meagre returns from Ukraine’s intensive efforts to liberate more territory. That could end up looking something like the Korean peninsula, with a demilitarised zone between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territory, or a grinding perpetual conflict that flares up and down, eventually resulting in an uneasy truce. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes. A protracted and costly World War I helped usher in the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.</p>
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<p>The Biden administration continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated. “President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby. For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow. Many experts I consulted were pessimistic about the prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war in the foreseeable future.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <li>The Russian pull-out from Kherson has partly led me to this conclusion.</li><br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <li>Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And Kyiv will likely also try to spring more military surprises on the Russian invaders to knock them off balance in some areas.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC here in Kyiv all argued that President Putin could not ride out a catastrophic loss of authority. "I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser. The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.</p><br /><br /><h2>Which weapons will Washington send?</h2><br /><br /><p>And Russia, as a much larger country, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a significant economic player, “is no North Korea” and “can’t and will not be isolated,” she noted. The forecasting firm Good Judgment’s superforecasters, a global network of about 180 experts in various fields with a strong track record, tend to “see a long slog coming” in Ukraine, CEO Warren Hatch told me. Some of the superforecasters, however, point to key differences between this war and past conflicts that they believe could produce a faster resolution—including the degree to which the West is arming Ukraine and punishing Russia economically. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The debates still rages about whether an earlier tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut would have made sense.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. This was at the dog end of the costly and unimpressive Russian offensives of the first part of the year. Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. This was probably the period of maximum unease on the Russian side.</p><br /><br /><h3>More than a year of fighting</h3><br /><br /><p>Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukrainian rear will complete this war of attrition strategy. We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat. Things will move slower over the winter but there's no doubt that Ukraine's forces will be better able to cope than Russia's because of all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Speaking on national TV, he suggested his country could be victorious against Russia on the battlefield. "It's to send in non-uniformed troops to stir up trouble, part of 'sub-threshold warfare'. I'm worried it will spill over into the Baltics." "This is a massive wake-up call for Europe," says Tobias Ellwood, MP and chairman of the UK Parliament's Defence Committee.</p><br /><br /><h2>WASHINGTON &amp; POLITICS</h2><br /><br /><p>Russia's forces outnumber Ukraine's by more than three-to-one, and there are questions about the quality of Ukraine's military leadership and how long its forces can hold out. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes. Getting Biden’s recent supplemental funding request for Ukraine through the House of Representatives will be hard, and that money would last only through early 2024. Putin knows that the leading Republican candidate for president next year, former President Donald Trump, would end U.S. support for Ukraine, and that there are others like him in Europe. At the same time, if we’re honest, we have to acknowledge that Ukraine may not achieve total military success in the next year or two. The Russian military, though battered and demoralized, has remained resilient, even against advanced Western weapons and tactics.</p><br /><br />

Latest revision as of 00:00, 24 April 2024

The Biden administration continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated. “President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby. For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow. Many experts I consulted were pessimistic about the prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war in the foreseeable future.











  • The Russian pull-out from Kherson has partly led me to this conclusion.








  • Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.








  • And Kyiv will likely also try to spring more military surprises on the Russian invaders to knock them off balance in some areas.








  • Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority.










It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC here in Kyiv all argued that President Putin could not ride out a catastrophic loss of authority. "I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser. The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.



Which weapons will Washington send?



And Russia, as a much larger country, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a significant economic player, “is no North Korea” and “can’t and will not be isolated,” she noted. The forecasting firm Good Judgment’s superforecasters, a global network of about 180 experts in various fields with a strong track record, tend to “see a long slog coming” in Ukraine, CEO Warren Hatch told me. Some of the superforecasters, however, point to key differences between this war and past conflicts that they believe could produce a faster resolution—including the degree to which the West is arming Ukraine and punishing Russia economically. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking.











  • The debates still rages about whether an earlier tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut would have made sense.








  • "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.








  • It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.








  • Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine.










One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. This was at the dog end of the costly and unimpressive Russian offensives of the first part of the year. Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. This was probably the period of maximum unease on the Russian side.



More than a year of fighting



Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukrainian rear will complete this war of attrition strategy. We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat. Things will move slower over the winter but there's no doubt that Ukraine's forces will be better able to cope than Russia's because of all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany.





Speaking on national TV, he suggested his country could be victorious against Russia on the battlefield. "It's to send in non-uniformed troops to stir up trouble, part of 'sub-threshold warfare'. I'm worried it will spill over into the Baltics." "This is a massive wake-up call for Europe," says Tobias Ellwood, MP and chairman of the UK Parliament's Defence Committee.



WASHINGTON & POLITICS



Russia's forces outnumber Ukraine's by more than three-to-one, and there are questions about the quality of Ukraine's military leadership and how long its forces can hold out. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes. Getting Biden’s recent supplemental funding request for Ukraine through the House of Representatives will be hard, and that money would last only through early 2024. Putin knows that the leading Republican candidate for president next year, former President Donald Trump, would end U.S. support for Ukraine, and that there are others like him in Europe. At the same time, if we’re honest, we have to acknowledge that Ukraine may not achieve total military success in the next year or two. The Russian military, though battered and demoralized, has remained resilient, even against advanced Western weapons and tactics.



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