Kremlin Denies Report Putin Reached Out to the US About Ending Ukraine War

Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. It is almost two years since Russia's invasion but the situation on the ground has changed little in recent months - despite Ukraine's counter-offensive, which began in June.

24 territory as they can get, force Putin to the bargaining table, and then ultimately Ukraine would have to compromise somewhat on issues like Crimea and portions of the east and arrange for solid security guarantees going forward,” Smith told Defense News in a phone interview. The Ukrainian General Staff says its forces have repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka itself, as well as from settlements to the north west, south west, and directly west of the town. Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin all had to keep their armies moving in the face of a steppes winter, and now - his invasion going backwards on the ground - Vladimir Putin is digging his forces in for the winter to await a new Russian offensive in the spring.

Western exhaustion

In explaining why, Reiter pointed to “the heavy diplomatic costs of [Russia] using nuclear weapons, the lack of military utility of using nuclear weapons,” and the risk that such use would “increase NATO military involvement” in the war. https://anotepad.com/notes/yds2qhbe , a historian of Eastern Europe at Yale, told me he stands by an assessment he made in October in which he similarly argued that a Russian nuclear detonation was highly unlikely. “We are drawn to this scenario, in part, because we seem to lack other variants, and it feels like an ending,” he wrote at the time. More likely, Snyder argues, Putin is trying to instill fear in order to buy his military time and undermine international support for Ukraine. That effort would require extensive U.S. involvement as well, and could serve as a springboard for China to assert itself as a diplomatic power, as the United States did during peace talks after World War I.

So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia. But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute.

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 703

But a couple offered scenarios for what such a settlement could look like, portraying them as more guesswork than predictions. Persuading countries in regions such as Africa and the Middle East to deny Russia its imperial schemes will require a major shift in how the United States and its allies describe the stakes of the war and even in how they articulate their broader worldview, Hill argued. Rather than framing the war as a struggle between democracies and autocracies or East versus West, U.S. and European leaders should make the case that the Kremlin, in its thirst for empire, has “violated the UN Charter [and] international laws” that keep other countries safe as well. “If leaders explain the stakes and the costs, this is a manageable burden,” he told me.

He said he aimed to make Russia a "great, peaceful and free country". Mr Nadezhdin, who name is similar to "nadezhda", the Russian word for hope, said he had the support of "dozens of millions of people". Opposition leader Alexey Navalny, once seen as a major threat to the president's authority, has been in jail since 2021. He has won several presidential elections comfortably, but in recent years no serious opposition has been allowed.

Ukraine: what will end the war? Here’s what research says

The Ukrainians reverted to the sort of smaller-scale operations that they understood better. This meant however that progress was slow, giving the Russians time to reinforce areas coming under threat. Without improved coordination between units it was difficult to scale up the effects and take advantage of any breakthroughs.

The gloves are off, the pretences dropped, diplomacy is dead - at least for now. Ukraine is under full-scale Russian invasion and is fighting for its very survival. Adding a democratic Ukraine in NATO would mark the utter and permanent defeat of Putin’s crusade to absorb it into a Russian empire. Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change.

After a year in which both sides looked forward to military advances and were disappointed, this new year starts with expectations so low that the only way we can possibly be surprised is by developments that get us closer to a resolution. By the end of July there was no point in pretending that all was going well. One problem is it leads to playing down the benefits the US has always got in its conventional operations from superior firepower.

• "But it might not destroy the Ukrainian government - provided it has made plans to set up a new government HQ, most likely in the western part of the country."









• Regardless of a country’s government style, a leader is still dependent upon the support of a group of people, or coalition, to stay in power.









• This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion.

Kyiv will be reluctant to halt when the immediate prize is so great. Ukrainian offensives might, nevertheless, pause down in the south-west, following the recovery of Kherson. At least 10,000 civilians, including over 560 children, have been killed and more than 18,500 injured since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission there said on Tuesday. Also briefing the 15-member Security Council, Ramesh Rajasingham, Director of Coordination, at the UN humanitarian affairs office (OCHA), said that millions of civilians in Ukraine, including women and children, are staring at the prospect of yet another winter of severe hardship. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders?

• And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult.









• Never,” United States President Joe Biden said in Poland last week, a day after a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv.









• The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon.









• For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said.









• Yet Ukraine’s choices are in turn shaped by what the West will provide.

He would no doubt like some tangible victory before then – say the capture of all the Donbas that would allow him to argue that core objectives have been met. If there has not been any progress then at least he should take stock. The winter will be over and he can see what territory, if any, has been taken. The effectiveness of the drone and missile attacks on Ukraine can be judged.

This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion. But it was largely because of the meagre returns from Ukraine’s intensive efforts to liberate more territory. That could end up looking something like the Korean peninsula, with a demilitarised zone between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territory, or a grinding perpetual conflict that flares up and down, eventually resulting in an uneasy truce. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes. A protracted and costly World War I helped usher in the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.