U S and Britain reportedly believe the Ukraine war could last 1020 years become a Russian quagmire

The Russians are trying to teach the Ukrainians that the war is gonna be very costly by taking out their infrastructure and just punishing of civilians. And on the other hand is the west, which is telling the Russians this war is gonna be too costly because we have sanctions on you and your complete economy will implode. But back to the Ukrainians, there’s many other kind of examples where states have tried to punish the civilians in the hope to break their will. And in almost all cases, it’s had the opposite effect.

• "There is not going to be a Vichy Ukraine," former U.S.









• European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO.









• However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine.









• Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union.

We have no idea what the consequences of this will be long term or even in the near short term.” The biggest unknown is not when this war will end—because it won’t anytime soon—but where. In some ways, Ukraine was already in the midst of a long-running crisis. The country has been engaged in armed conflict with Russia since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, which even before Russia’s invasion last month had resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 people, many of them civilians. That the war has now escalated beyond the two countries’ de facto border has raised the stakes of the conflict, threatening both Ukraine’s sovereignty and that of its neighbors, many of which are now justifiably asking whether they could be next.

Europe bans Russian oil products, the latest strike on the Kremlin war chest

In addition, the Ukrainian government anticipates that it will continue to receive Western military support – and ideally, at even greater volume than now. “Ukraine cannot afford to stop now because it would lose one-fifth of its territory to Russia, including vital Black Sea trading ports, the industrial and mining area of the Donbas, and important tracts of agricultural land. This would make a future Ukrainian state less functional and prosperous,” said Shea, who is also a former deputy assistant secretary-general for emerging security challenges at NATO.

But that gap in coverage is likely to become even more striking the longer the conflict continues, because the factors that make a long war in Ukraine seemingly inevitable are the same ones that make it unlikely to slip from the world’s collective radar. The problems could extend beyond Ukraine, he said, arguing that Europe could face another wave of immigrants from African and Middle Eastern countries previously reliant on grain exports from Ukraine if the war continued to disrupt maritime exports. The statements suggest the west believes Ukraine cannot achieve a rapid military breakthrough despite the anticipated arrival of fresh Nato-standard arms, while officials in the country have continued to call for rapid help. It came as the new head of the British army said British troops must prepare “to fight in Europe once again”.

War in Ukraine

I just told you a story about the nuclear demonstration of just testing a bomb and then scaring the west, Trump getting elected. I just read another article in the New York Times about these people who are saying like, “Oh, Ukraine should negotiate and should make some kind of peace deal,” but these people are idiots. Do they think that Putin, after he has been successful and shown that he’s been a great leader, and he won against the mighty Nato alliance and all this force, that he’s gonna stop? How can you possibly believe that is true, particularly if he demonstrates that he can stand up to Nato and the west? How can you think this guy won’t come back and ask for more?

• Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more.









• One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation.









• Under this scenario, Russia escalates its military operations.









• Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of 280,000 people.

But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond. https://houmann-monroe-2.federatedjournals.com/discovering-the-fox-news-studio-location-in-nyc lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine. Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year.

After the Ukraine war, what comes next? NATO allies don't agree

When Ukraine retook Robotyne in August it was hoped that its forces would be able to cut the land corridor to Crimea, making Moscow's supply lines more complicated. However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. Russia is India's largest arms supplier, but the war in Ukraine has limited Moscow's ability to provide munitions. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today.

I think there is a chance that Ukrainians will push forward during the spring if they have integrated the tanks, but they may have to wait until they get the planes. If they get the plane to do the combined arms warfare at which Nato excels and which the Russians simply can’t do and which is a massive force multiplier. It may take a little bit longer, but it takes two sides to end the war. And the question is why would Russia, why would Putin ever agree? I mean, in my opinion, if he gives up Crimea, it will cost him his personal safety, you know, maybe his life, and he may be thrown in jail. Gideon Rachman That was Hein Goemans explaining why he’s interested in war and why he’s gloomy about the prospect that the conflict in Ukraine will end anytime soon.

This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe.

• Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia.









• I mean, I suppose we hear from them and it’s difficult to dispute it, that they have no incentive to settle because they feel they’re fighting for their freedom and for their statehood.









• The longer the Russian invasion continues, the greater the refugee crisis that Europe is likely to face, and the riskier the situation becomes for NATO, which has gone to great lengths to avoid being drawn into direct conflict with Russian troops.









• So for a war to end, the minimum war aims of at least one side must change.









• When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable.









• Hein Goemans I’m relatively optimistic about it, but I mean, if Trump wins in 2024, things will change.

So here’s an example of why a war should end quickly, but sometimes doesn’t. The Western military alliance chief said that supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons would increase its chances of being able to liberate the country's eastern Donbas region, much of which is currently under Russian control. Russia already controls most of Sievierodonetsk, Haidai said on Sunday morning, and if Ukrainian forces lose the city, fighting is expected to focus on neighbouring Lysychansk, from which 32 residents have been evacuated over the weekend despite heavy shelling. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

• I've also met displaced Ukrainians who have re-started their businesses in European countries, mostly Poland.









• The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year.









• The other, perhaps greater, risk is that Russian aggression could spread even farther afield, to the Baltics, which would not only draw NATO into a potential conflict, but also fundamentally threaten the post–Cold War order.









• The statements suggest the west believes Ukraine cannot achieve a rapid military breakthrough despite the anticipated arrival of fresh Nato-standard arms, while officials in the country have continued to call for rapid help.









• “It would have to get pretty bad for the Russians to get there,” he said, adding that there’s no way of knowing how many reserves the government stashed away after years of fat checks from energy sales.

Russia's invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine before dawn on 24 February 2022. The Ukrainian General Staff says settlements in the area - including Klishchiivka and Andriivka - are continuing to come under artillery and mortar fire. It notes the building gives Ukraine a "localised defensive advantage" and says Russian forces will probably suffer significant losses if they attempt to assault the facility. Perhaps most significant is the activity around Avdiivka, a strategically important town on the front line in eastern Ukraine.

It’s gonna take a lot of dying and a lot of death and destruction before both sides say, okay, we kind of, we can anticipate what the war is gonna end like and like, and we’re going to accept that and we’re gonna make a deal on that basis. Before we get to the show, I’d like to tell you about a survey we’re conducting to find out more from our listeners about what you think of the show and what you’d like to hear more of. You can find the survey at ft.com/rachmansurvey and we’ll put the link in our show notes. If you complete the survey, you’ll have a chance to win a pair of Bose QuietComfort earbuds. "We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into Nato was a criminal act," Mr Lavrov told the BBC. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also warned of a longer-term conflict.