Difference between revisions of "Ukraine fears that the war will end in a divided country like North and South Korea International"

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<p>And the United States should do everything possible to support it, including, if Congress approves more funding, by providing the more advanced weapons Ukraine has requested. The slower global economic growth that our scenarios predict, along with the retrenchment and fragmentation of globalization, would be unwelcome developments for most of the world’s nations. Their future will likely involve more civil conflict and impoverishment. Although they will be reluctant to align with either the United States and its allies or China and Russia, many developing countries will probably be susceptible to Chinese influence, given China’s massive investments in regions such as Africa and Latin America. With much of the developing world on the front lines of climate change, a breakdown in global cooperation could bring less help on that score too.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>But Ukraine joining NATO could itself be how the war ends, consistent with Biden’s current policy — and at a time and on terms set by Ukraine and its allies, not by Russia. Gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic, democratic state would absolutely count as a victory for Ukraine — arguably as big as quickly regaining Crimea. The war in Ukraine assumed international dimensions the moment Russian armoured columns rolled across the border in February 2022. [https://www.openlearning.com/u/michaelsenbishop-s2dhzs/blog/UkraineWhatWillEndTheWarHeresWhatResearchSays0 https://www.openlearning.com/u/michaelsenbishop-s2dhzs/blog/UkraineWhatWillEndTheWarHeresWhatResearchSays0] where a major nuclear power and energy exporter violated the sovereignty of a country that is a keystone of global food security was never going to be contained to just two countries.</p><br /><br /><h2>How has the conflict changed?</h2><br /><br /><p>The rapidity and the fury with which the United States, Europe, and major Asian economies (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia) slapped severe sanctions on Russia almost certainly came as a shock to China’s leaders. The swift Western response will give ammunition to Chinese proponents of more fully decoupling the country’s financial system from the West. Beijing’s goals as part of its Made in China 2025 initiative to become self-sufficient in key high-tech areas, and China Standards 2035, an effort to shape trade and technology standards and rules, seem even more urgent. What follows are four scenarios for how this war could conclude and the alternative geopolitical futures that might result, transforming international relations over the course of the next two to three years. We develop scenarios not to predict the future but to help decision makers imagine what could happen next and devise ways to prevent the worst case. The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Now Xi faces deep economic malaise, with an investment-driven, state-controlled model that no longer works.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Elsewhere, a fire broke out at a terminal of Russia's largest liquefied natural gas producer Novatek on the Baltic Sea, a regional official said on Sunday, amid reports of drone sightings in the area.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukraine's resistance and willingness to fight remains strong,&nbsp;but —&nbsp;if there is a Russian offensive on the horizon as some are predicting —&nbsp;their fortitude will once again be put to the test.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Given what’s at stake — not just the survival of Ukraine but of the whole international order — that would be risky.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>As such, many Ukrainians are against the war, with "no war" becoming a common slogan.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>The words of Danilov and Arestovich were spoken before the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June. This is the same percentage as in November of 2022, since the last victorious Ukrainian counteroffensive, when half of the province of Kherson was liberated. Ukraine claims it has killed more than 50,000 Russian troops, and at the end of August said it had lost nearly 9,000 military personnel since the start of the conflict. The Donbas is a mainly Russian-speaking area, and after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, pro-Russian forces captured more than a third of the region. The areas are largely in the eastern Donbas region and in the south of mainland Ukraine, as well as the Crimea peninsula which Russia annexed in 2014.</p><br /><br /><h3>Elsewhere on the BBC</h3><br /><br /><p>Similar attacks continued for several days and show no sign of abating in the new year. This prompted the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to warn that Russia was probably planning a prolonged air campaign aimed at exhausting Ukraine. The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year. With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability.</p><br /><br /><h2>Leadership change</h2><br /><br /><p>As the world’s biggest marketplace, Europe has long punched below its weight. This section examines the enduring changes in the world that are evident so far and how our scenarios could further impact the movement of these repositioned chess pieces. "We are in for a very long fight, this is not going to be short, this is not only going to be about Ukraine. ... This is probably the biggest challenge that we are seeing in Europe since World War II," he said.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Other analysts warn of a "quagmire" — where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia — if an insurgency continued long term.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>So even if there’s no ceasefire, the parties can still agree on other issues.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>This, in turn, would&nbsp;likely weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort. If there was no clear successor, Mr Putin's departure could&nbsp;spur on&nbsp;a brutal power struggle among pro-war, right-wing nationalists, authoritarian conservatives&nbsp;and a murky anti-war movement. Mr Putin's exit would&nbsp;not end the war in Ukraine because the Russian leader would&nbsp;likely be replaced by another pro-war nationalist, Professor Clarke said. However,&nbsp;if the war were to drag on&nbsp;this year and into next year, the reasoning could change. Mr Zelenskyy&nbsp;has so far ruled this out as a possibility,&nbsp;proposing&nbsp;a 10-point "formula for peace," which includes&nbsp;demands for a full withdrawal from Ukraine's territory.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Under the cover of darkness on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin acted on a long-held ambition, rolling his tanks across the border and&nbsp;disrupting the lives of 44 million people.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, a total Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>"The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. That could end up looking something like the Korean peninsula, with a demilitarised zone between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territory, or a grinding perpetual conflict that flares up and down, eventually resulting in an uneasy truce. But to analysts, like Morris, the prospect of Putin being removed is extremely unlikely — and the chances that whoever replaces him will be less hawkish are even more remote. “There isn’t really any source of alternative power to coalesce around while Putin is healthy and alive,” said Morris. The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Union’s collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would “continue to be together in some way”, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"[Russia is] facing three or four generations, 60 or 80 years, of guerilla war, because they're up against a population of 44 million people who are now completely and utterly Ukrainian men," Professor Clarke said.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Over the past two years, the middle classes in these countries have sunk back into poverty, stoking discontent and political instability.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, surrounding the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Both sides are now digging in as Moscow’s “special military operation”, which was intended to last a matter of days, grinds into another year of attritional warfare.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The current war is different, with Western support helping Ukraine regain large parts of the territory Russia grabbed in the early weeks after last year’s invasion.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. "This is a factual paper which does not reflect the status of the ongoing negotiations. The note does not outline any specific plan relating to the [long-term EU budget] and Ukraine Facility, nor does it outline any plan relating to Hungary," it said. The Russian-installed mayor of Donetsk has reported at least three civilians have been killed in a rocket strike. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But with&nbsp;Republicans poised to take control of Congress, there may be&nbsp;significant implications for the war.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>"The price we pay is in money, while the price the Ukrainians pay is in blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price," NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of last year.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul>
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<p>The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. "A successful attack on such a terminal not only causes economic damage to the enemy, depriving the occupiers of the opportunity to earn money to wage war in Ukraine, but also significantly complicates the logistics of fuel for the Russian military." Moscow accused Kyiv of launching a missile strike on the market in Donetsk, killing at least 25 people and injuring 20 others, and described the incident as a terrorist attack.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.</p><br /><br /><h2>Putin ousted</h2><br /><br /><p>Most peace agreements have been facilitated by third parties in some way. Peace mediators don’t necessarily have to be perfectly neutral and unbiased. Close relationships with one or both conflict parties may actually help. Mediators are called in when a conflict is too complex for the parties to resolve by themselves, as in family disputes for instance. Trying to end wars is, obviously, very complex and requires certain expertise. There have even been initiatives to adopt a new international treaty to create a stronger framework and more guidance for peace negotiators.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and&nbsp;U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.</p><br /><br /><h3>How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures.</h3><br /><br /><p>Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the newly appointed Russian General Sergey Surovikin plans to build a solid line of defense in occupied territories and effectively freeze the war over the winter. However, a total Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die. Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, though US intel and military experts have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill. Though the chances of him being overthrown in a coup are perhaps higher than ever, experts have previously said the Russian leader has made his regime "coup-proof" through a culture of distrust among Russia's intelligence agencies. But despite Russia's strongman facing discontent at home due to rising war casualties, the partial mobilization of reservists, and an economy damaged by sanctions, he appears to show no signs of backing down.</p><br /><br /><h2>Western backing</h2><br /><br /><p>But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute. The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russian nationalist voices have&nbsp;already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says&nbsp;Moscow&nbsp;could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its&nbsp;initial invasion.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul>

Latest revision as of 00:26, 24 April 2024

The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. "A successful attack on such a terminal not only causes economic damage to the enemy, depriving the occupiers of the opportunity to earn money to wage war in Ukraine, but also significantly complicates the logistics of fuel for the Russian military." Moscow accused Kyiv of launching a missile strike on the market in Donetsk, killing at least 25 people and injuring 20 others, and described the incident as a terrorist attack.











  • In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.








  • One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.








  • The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.








  • The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks.








  • Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.










Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.



Putin ousted



Most peace agreements have been facilitated by third parties in some way. Peace mediators don’t necessarily have to be perfectly neutral and unbiased. Close relationships with one or both conflict parties may actually help. Mediators are called in when a conflict is too complex for the parties to resolve by themselves, as in family disputes for instance. Trying to end wars is, obviously, very complex and requires certain expertise. There have even been initiatives to adopt a new international treaty to create a stronger framework and more guidance for peace negotiators.





“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.



How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures.



Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.







According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the newly appointed Russian General Sergey Surovikin plans to build a solid line of defense in occupied territories and effectively freeze the war over the winter. However, a total Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die. Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, though US intel and military experts have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill. Though the chances of him being overthrown in a coup are perhaps higher than ever, experts have previously said the Russian leader has made his regime "coup-proof" through a culture of distrust among Russia's intelligence agencies. But despite Russia's strongman facing discontent at home due to rising war casualties, the partial mobilization of reservists, and an economy damaged by sanctions, he appears to show no signs of backing down.



Western backing



But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute. The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year.











  • Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.








  • Russian nationalist voices have already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says Moscow could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its initial invasion.








  • The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine.








  • After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.








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