Difference between revisions of "Ukraine what will end the war Heres what research says"

Latest revision as of 22:51, 18 April 2024

Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport. The current war is different, with Western support helping Ukraine regain large parts of the territory Russia grabbed in the early weeks after last year’s invasion. As things stand, Putin, despite crushing setbacks on the battlefield, appears to be prepared for a long fight and believes Russia will win. Russia’s allies like China – which has been a lukewarm friend to Putin in his war against Ukraine – have also been unable, or unwilling, to force him to the negotiating table.

“One may imagine something like the outcome of the Korean War,” with “the warring sides remaining not reconciled and irreconcilable, always on alert, but more or less securely divided,” Lipman told me. Still, she said, whatever border is drawn between Russia and Ukraine is likely to be far longer and harder to secure than the one dividing the Korean peninsula. And Russia, as a much larger country, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a significant economic player, “is no North Korea” and “can’t and will not be isolated,” she noted.

Biden says he'll back Ukraine as long as it takes. But some take aim at the price tag

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told Defense News that Ukraine would not strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons pledged by the United States. After imposing sanctions and export controls, Lichfield expects the West’s latest economic pressure point — oil price caps — to yield results because the Russian economy is so tightly linked to the energy market. An inability to do so could foster economic discontent capable of turning public opinion against the war, Lichfield told Defense News. Past attempts to squeeze the will for war out of Moscow economically also didn’t yield the immediate results for which experts hoped. And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult. “Those who are against the war have left, and those who remain are adapting,” Meister said.

• That alliance’s decision, at its 2008 Bucharest summit, to open the door to that country (and Georgia) was irrevocable.









• As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia.









• The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates that the French, German, and Italian economies (the three largest in Europe) will contract for the rest of this year, with only France’s registering an anemic 0.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter.









• In the meantime, NATO countries "would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance."









• The endgame would have to come from the gradual destruction of the Russian economy over a period of two or three years.

But he said even that is not enough - so the Army should be designed to expand rapidly "to enable the first echelon, resource the second echelon, and train and equip the citizen army that must follow". He is a strong believer in a professional army made up of volunteers. But he was making the point that if war broke out troop numbers would be too small. Finland, Nato's newest member and a country which has an 800-mile border with Russia, has wider conscription.

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When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine. A lot of the Ukrainians I've talked to, while they appreciate the Western weapons supplies, say this is their war to fight. Apart from a few exceptions, almost all of the tens of thousands of people who have died in this war have been on Ukrainian territory. The invasion has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine. Given the size and scale of this invasion, coupled with the rhetoric, I really do think that his objective is some form of annexation, or full conquest of Ukraine.

• To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed.









• But another McCarthy concession — a procedure allowing 218 members to force a House floor vote on any bill — could present an opportunity for pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats to pass additional funding for Kyiv.









• The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes.









• The former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain has long been criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing".

Then there are all those websites to check out, their color-coded maps and daily summaries catching that conflict’s rapid twists and turns. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. The other sticking point is that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is an elected representative of the Ukrainian people – any settlement has to be mandated by them too. “They would not support a negotiated solution that would cede control of Ukrainian territory on a permanent basis,” Greene adds.

How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end

Yet I recently posed them to several top historians, political scientists, geopolitical forecasters, and former officials—because only in imagining potential futures can we understand the rough bounds of the possible, and our own agency in influencing the outcome we want. Ukraine is assembling a force of more than 100 western Leopard 1 and 2 tanks, plus others, and a similar number of armoured vehicles that it hopes to use whenever the spring muddy season eases, to smash through Russia’s defensive lines in a D-day offensive. Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.

• Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas.









• Russia lacks the equipment and trained manpower to launch a strategic offensive until spring 2025, at the earliest.









• So a more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict that consolidates around lines of control.









• This is an edited and abbreviated transcript of our conversation.









• Ditto the devastation it continues to create in some of the world’s poorest countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen.

Expediting its membership would be a heavy lift for the EU and such an aid package would be costly to the Europeans and Americans, so they’d have to decide how much they were willing to offer to end Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. The combination of Ukraine fatigue and Russian military successes, however painfully and brutally gained, may be precisely what Vladimir Putin is betting on. The Western coalition of more than three dozen states is certainly formidable, but he’s savvy enough to know that Russia’s battlefield advantages could make it ever harder for the U.S. and its allies to maintain their unity. The possibility of negotiations with Putin has been raised in France, Italy, and Germany. Ukraine won’t be cut off economically or militarily by the West, but it could find Western support ever harder to count on as time passes, despite verbal assurances of solidarity. The Russians were by then focused on taking the Donbas region.

Ukraine's counteroffensive is likely to make some progress in the remainder of this year, Barrons said — but nowhere near enough to end the occupation. "Ukraine has to show it can make progress, but everybody knows that, given the size of the force that they have, that they are not going to throw every Russian out of Ukraine in 2023," retired British Gen. https://bagge-albrechtsen.mdwrite.net/good-news-for-vinyl-enthusiasts-who-love-bad-news , the former commander of the U.K.'s Joint Forces Command, told CNBC. It's become clear that the counteroffensive won't produce quick results and that success — however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone.

While the West could warn Kyiv that it would stop supplies of weapons or financial support if Ukraine were to insist on defying the US or Europe, “this kind of threat is not credible”, Slantchev told Al Jazeera. That, he said, is “because the Ukrainians know” that it is in Western interests “to not let them collapse”. Equally, Ukraine’s dependence on their weapons gives Western powers a say in how Kyiv plots its strategy.