How Do Americans and Russians View the War in Ukraine Emerging Global Order Carnegie Corporation of New York

I was planning to go see my family right about this time, but it doesn’t seem possible any more. I mean – there is probably a way to go to Russia, but almost zero way for me to come back to study, and as a new semester is coming, I’m not risking it. I have a residency permit right now, but it expires in May.

• This apocalyptic narrative sets up Ukraine as the site of this great battle.









• From fleeting impressions and conversations it is hard to draw firm conclusions.









• Ukrainians are said to shell their own cities, and Russian troops are presented as liberators.

The data reveal that while a narrow majority of Russians think their government should start peace negotiations (53 percent), returning any territory to Ukraine as concessions in a negotiation would be overwhelmingly unacceptable to the public. Most of the Russian public also opposes any use of nuclear weapons by Moscow. Sadly, many of these relations have been strained in recent years due to the Putin government’s hostility towards Ukraine and the Russian media’s relentless and baseless attacks on Ukrainians. The situation has resulted in contacts being terminated for political reasons as a result of changing attitudes towards Russia as a whole. It involves a military assault with air, sea and land forces being deployed in combination with sophisticated cyber attacks and relentless propaganda disseminated by conventional as well as social media. Having a prosperous, modern, independent and democratic European state bordering Russia was perceived as posing a threat to Russia’s autocratic regime.

What Russians think of the war in Ukraine, according to an independent pollster

And the chaos itself can backfire — or at least quickly diminish its effectiveness — when out of step with lived experience, further undermining legitimacy in the state. Considering all this, telling Russian men and their families that it is in their interest to fight, and die, in faraway Ukraine is a harder story to sell. In other words, Russians appear to be less and less influenced by propaganda from Moscow, especially when it clearly contradicts the struggles in their daily lives. As Putin’s war of choice inflicts personal costs on citizens, Russians seem less willing to swallow the state narratives that are delivered over state television, which remains the primary source of information for most Russians. https://ambitious-camel-g3r4ks.mystrikingly.com/blog/how-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-could-spill-over-into-europe is good at manipulating public opinion.

But since the invasion of Ukraine, it has been harder for Russian scientists to share data about how climate change is affecting the region. This tiny chapel is on the grounds of the Northeast Science Station near the Russian town of Chersky. Many shout about it openly, but it doesn’t end in anything good.

Tatyana*, 28, from Moscow, currently in Germany – ‘My parents can justify the war in their heads. I can’t understand why’

OK, I confess I didn't know who the woman was, but her thoughts didn't exactly seem preoccupied by a possible invasion on her country. As concern grows that Russia will invade Ukraine, BBC correspondents gauge the public mood in Moscow and Kyiv on whether the crisis could lead to a wider war in Europe. The educated and the wealthy, many of them urban residents, are fleeing mobilisation. Those with more meagre resources are going to recruiting stations. They may be frightened and apprehensive, and not very keen to fight, but they are not ready to break away from the imaginary “national body” whose will and aspirations are expressed for them by Mr Putin. The fraught nature of their decisions to enlist will increase their hostility toward those who make the opposite choice.

• In Russia, both pro-Putin supporters and anti-Putin oppositionists like Alexei Navalny and Mikhail Khodorkovsky backed the annexation of Crimea.









• OK, I confess I didn't know who the woman was, but her thoughts didn't exactly seem preoccupied by a possible invasion on her country.









• When I think about the conflict, I feel anxious, sad, and frustrated.

As Republican and Democratic politicians in the U.S. spar with one another over sending military equipment to Ukraine, “Germany has come through in its support,” Radchenko said. Nearly every Ukrainian agrees that winning the war means regaining all the land that Russia has conquered from their country since 2014, when the Crimean Peninsula was annexed by Moscow, the Gallup survey found. “Given everything that’s happening, paying attention to what’s going on in Ukraine daily is more important now than it was before,” Julie Ray, Gallup’s managing editor for world news, told VOA. And Russian authorities have taken a tough line against people they consider pro-Kyiv agitators. “My husband had already come here to work, and I arrived with our child as the shooting began,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that support from Russian authorities was not as forthcoming as she would have liked. Lena, 30, is a former resident of the city who now lives in St Petersburg.

Now, any anti-war speech can result in up to 15 years of imprisonment. Some of my friends are leaving the country right now, and I understand them. Surveys have suggested that the majority of Russians support the invasion.

• I’m against the war, and most of my friends and people I know feel the same way.









• After such colossal losses, the army will have to be rebuilt again.









• Even those who did agree to answer the questions in Miniailo’s survey displayed a heightened level of fear and discomfort.









• For the past year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies has worked with FilterLabs.AI, a Massachusetts-based data analytics firm, to track local sentiment across Russia using AI-enabled sentiment analysis.









• In the weeks leading up to Russia's invasion, I would walk for hours in the central Moscow district of Zamoskvorechiye, where I had lived and worked in the BBC office for seven years.

The ‘Road Home’ platform — Put Domói, in Russian — now has over 30,000 followers. They are a minority, largely out of fear, but a growing group of women are calling for measures to bring their relatives home from the front. They are expressing their discomfort on the channel, have addressed deputies and held protests. Beginning in spring 2014, Ukrainian attitudes toward Russia begin to massively change—not because of any state-directed propaganda campaigns but in response to Putin’s military aggression.

While the defence alliance, Nato, and the US warn of an imminent invasion, many people are still unconvinced that war will happen or that it would be to Russia's advantage. Since Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula and backed militants in the eastern Donbas region in 2014, there's been no real let-up in fighting, cyber-attacks and misinformation. "We are measuring public attitudes that, more or less, coincide with how people will behave in public," he adds. "We must understand that polls show us not what people really think or really believe, but what they want to share," he says. Volkov told Inskeep that he's aware of the pitfalls with these polls, but they may still have valuable information to teach us.

• Mostly because I don’t understand how anyone could take this step – to send people to fight, to kill others.









• Muddling the information environment and sowing mistrust has not generated positive support for Moscow’s misadventures.









• Roughly speaking, I just started helping another part of the population.









• “Given everything that’s happening, paying attention to what’s going on in Ukraine daily is more important now than it was before,” Julie Ray, Gallup’s managing editor for world news, told VOA.









• He contrasts this to public opinion surrounding the annexation of Crimea in 2014, recalling that there were positive feelings and even "euphoria" at the time.

The invasion of Ukraine is just an expansion and escalation of the earlier hybrid war. “The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may last for several more years. I believe that the political system in Russia will be severely degraded in the coming years. Business, housing and community services, medicine, education – everything will sag.

• The evidence suggests that even in the best-case scenario, the mobilization effect will be nonexistent.









• By siding with the more militant part of the pro-war camp, which has long demanded mobilisation, Mr Putin may force doubters to pick a side and thus polarise society.









• Because of everything escalating so rapidly, I’m anxious about whether I’ll have issues renewing it due to me being Russian.









• That is because its most avid proponents, and its most intractable opponents, will not change their minds.









• It will drive a wedge between families whose members fight, and those whose run for the border or curse the war.

But this week, after several television appearances by Mr. Putin stunned and scared some longtime observers, that sense of casual disregard turned to a deep unease. To put it simply, before launching an offensive, it’s worth thinking about who will fight in that offensive and how willingly, and to what extent an active conflict will prompt people to rally around Putin. The evidence suggests that even in the best-case scenario, the mobilization effect will be nonexistent. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the national Russian holiday commemorating Nazi Germany’s defeat at the end of World War II to demonize the West, suggesting it is responsible for Russia’s war in Ukraine. In his annual “Victory Day” speech on May 9, Putin said the ongoing invasion and occupation of Ukraine was necessary because the West was “preparing for the invasion of our land, including Crimea,” according to CNBC.