Ukraine invasion What does it mean for UK energy supply and global climate change action Climate News

The French president carried on holding phone calls with Putin long after other Nato countries had cut ties with the Kremlin over its illegal war. "Given the current crisis in Ukraine the demand for food is ever increasing," he told the BBC. https://pastelink.net/submit , who runs Rookery Farms in Newbury, Berkshire, said he decided this week to sow spring wheat on land that was not due to be planted on until next autumn.

The UK, US and EU also announced sanctions against the Russian Central Bank, which involve freezing its assets held in sterling, dollars and euros. By restricting Russia’s access to much of its $600–700bn in foreign exchange reserves, this move significantly limits the central bank’s ability to stabilise the rouble as it had done in response to the initial sanctions. Either side could choose to impose partial or targeted sanctions on energy trade, rather than a full cut off of supply.

Russia's wanton destruction against Ukraine must be stopped: UK statement to the OSCE

We then set out how the economic shock from the invasion had been reflected in our forecast as well as several potential channels through which the invasion could affect the UK economy that our forecast did not explicitly capture. This is partly due to the relatively large share of services in UK output and relatively large shares of energy-intensive manufacturing in some other countries (Chart C). However, 76 per cent of the UK’s gross consumption comes from gas and oil compared with a European average of 57 per cent.

The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so. But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks. A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe.

Ukraine brings significant economic uncertainty, Rishi Sunak warns

Whatever the medium- or long-term effects of the war it is likely that firms and households around the world, but also in the UK – fearful of the worst-case scenario – will delay investment and consumption decisions, holding back the wider pandemic recovery. BP Plc, Russia’s largest foreign investor, led the way on 27 February by announcing that it would exit its 20% stake in Rosneft, a state-controlled company. This could result in a $25bn write-off and a large reduction in its global fuel production.

Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, revealed how he feared in Spring 2022 that Kyiv would come under pressure to accept a bad peace deal. But in a new BBC documentary to be aired on Monday, Ms Truss, the then foreign secretary, reveals that his efforts went down badly in Downing Street. "There is no prospect of food shortages at any point in the future, and Defra are working with Treasury to try and make sure that that continues to be the case," he said.

Unprecedented sanctions will hurt Russia – but may not change Putin’s approach

We remain deeply humbled by the bravery and the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their determination to win. The Federation of Wholesale Distributors has also warned that the increase in fuel prices will lead to people paying more for food in shops and restaurants. Its letter warned that disruption to food production, supply chains and the availability and affordability of food in the shops could last for years. The conflict in Ukraine pushed the price of oil to its highest level for nearly 14 years at one point and this has had a knock-on impact on fuel costs, with UK petrol prices hitting record highs. But because the UK operates in international gas markets, prices will be hit by any drop in global supply. Earlier this week, the boss of one of the world's biggest fertiliser companies, Yara International, warned that the war in Ukraine would deliver a shock to the global supply and cost of food.

• We have also not made any explicit adjustments for the domestic consequences of international sanctions on Russian financial institutions or individuals, beyond what might be reflected in equity prices in the fiscal forecast.









• This culminated on 29 December, when Russian unleashed its largest aerial assault against Ukraine since the war began.









• These actions are likely to be felt by individual firms and investors, and potentially some sectors, but their wider impact will not be large relative to, for example, those relating to energy supply.









• Gazprombank, which is part owned by Russian energy giant Gazprom and acts as a key bank for Russia’s energy conglomerates, has so far been excluded from the SWIFT ban.









• It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders.









• Russia might use the crisis to launch cyber and other hybrid attacks on Nato countries.

To that end the review already committed to exceeding NATO spending commitments, and the UK playing its part in multilateral governance and collective security in a more hard-nosed way. But while by far the most significant consequences of the invasion over the past year have clearly been for the people of the Ukraine (and Russia), the advent of war in mainland Europe has also had consequences for UK government. Madame Chair, as we approach the third year since Russia’s full-scale invasion, the UK’s support will not falter. During his visit to Kyiv earlier this month, my Prime Minister announced a package of support and reaffirmed the close UK-Ukraine partnership. This included £2.5 billion in military support and a historic long-term security agreement. This brings the United Kingdom’s total package of support to Ukraine to approximately £12 billion.

• It's highly likely the election will see him start a new six-year term, which - if completed - would make him Russia's longest-serving ruler since the 18th century.









• For decades the European Union has heavily relied on Russia's oil and gas, generating money and cash for Russia.









• He called for the government to halt a planned National Insurance increase in April.









• Since then, Ukraine's military has been locked in a war with Russian-backed rebels in eastern areas near Russia's borders.









• Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK.

As well as driving up costs for energy intensive companies, western sanctions on Russia could hit the availability of materials used in the aerospace, automotive and electronics industries. The country is a major producer of metals such as titanium, nickel, cobalt and lithium. The OECD is the second international body to cut its growth forecast in the past two days, with the World Bank warning in its global economic prospects of a return to 1970s-style stagflation – a combination of weak growth and high inflation.

The war has strengthened political consensus that domestic renewables offer the cheapest and most secure form of energy. A year after Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, five IfG experts examine the impact of the war on the UK. I offer my condolences and that of the UK to all Ukrainians for the lives lost due to these barbaric airstrikes. These took place far away from the front lines of Russia’s war, in civilian populated areas. The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop.

A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". However, he warned of "chaos" if European states do not show enough unity and determination.

• Grain prices have also jumped as both Russia and Ukraine are major global producers, particularly of wheat.









• Ben Wallace's trip to Moscow does not signal any significant shift in the balance of this crisis.









• As well as driving up costs for energy intensive companies, western sanctions on Russia could hit the availability of materials used in the aerospace, automotive and electronics industries.

Olly Bartrum, a senior economist at the Institute for Government (IfG), says that disruption to global metal markets will affect many key UK sectors like automotive, smartphones and aerospace. Despite limited dependence on Russian imports, surging global prices are expected to erode living standards even further. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that while the economy had "rebounded with vigour" in January, "the cost of living crisis and the influence of the war in Ukraine probably means this is as good as it gets for the year". He added that the government had "provided unprecedented support" throughout the Covid pandemic, "which has put our economy in a strong position to deal with current cost of living challenges". Gas prices have also soared, leading to warnings that average energy bills could reach £3,000 per year in October, after rising to £2,000 in April when the energy price cap is raised.

Mr Johnson said the invasion of Ukraine should “mark the end” of the West’s soft approach towards Putin who he said needed to be “put back in the box”. The former prime minister said that the military alliance’s dithering over whether Kyiv would be allowed to join had been a “fatal” error. “We realised the weapons and the sanctions were the real levers that we had over Russia but we were behind the curve in terms of our sanctions,” she said. Another factor affecting food production in the UK is that Ukrainian workers have accounted for 60% of recruits under the UK's Seasonal Workers Scheme, the NFU said.