Difference between revisions of "Ukraine How might the war end Five scenarios"

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<p>Instead, over the past year Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully pushed back the invading troops. As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and Nato then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war. [https://rentry.co/u6iif9zo https://rentry.co/u6iif9zo] are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to "come to the aid" of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes.</p><br /><br /><h2>Could the fighting spread to other countries?</h2><br /><br /><p>The first - which would be the most optimistic from Kyiv’s perspective - is that Ukrainian forces successfully move towards Mariupol on the Black Sea coast, cutting off Russian forces from the southern part of the country. The move “would also put Crimea at risk and then potentially we could see a collapse of Russian forces and effectively Ukraine could win,” he said. There was, for example, a thread of continuity between the first and second world wars. To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Senior Ukrainians are still doing their best to manage expectations about the summer offensive.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>There remains speculation that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>There's of course the possibility that a Ukrainian fightback doesn't pose a significant challenge to Russian forces that remain in Ukraine — after all, thousands of fighters are civilians who taken up arms and have been hastily trained.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But on the other, having lost more than 7,000 of his troops, according to the U.S. government, Putin may decide to escalate his bombing campaign, which has already left parts of Ukraine in ruin and, at a conservative estimate, more than 900 civilians dead.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In theory, that gives the West influence over the direction of the war.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has "once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history." There's of course the possibility that a Ukrainian fightback doesn't pose a significant challenge to Russian forces that remain in Ukraine — after all, thousands of fighters are civilians who taken up arms and have been hastily trained. There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko.</p><br /><br /><h3>About Sky News</h3><br /><br /><p>They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression". Most of its people do not want their country to become part of Russia. It may not be a member of the European Union or Nato, but it is an ally of European powers and has a pro-Western government. But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries. The former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain has long been criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing".</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>However, what was not apparent to Russia until the fighting began is that the Ukrainian people are far more willing to fight than they anticipated. According to this approach, wars will end when the problem that caused the war is resolved by fighting on the battlefield. How long the fighting will last and the form it takes depends on the extent and type of the problem. When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, I was easing my way into a new job and in the throes of the teaching year. I spend most of my day poring over multiple newspapers, magazines, blogs, and the Twitter feeds of various military mavens, a few of whom have been catapulted by the war from obscurity to a modicum of fame.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>I spoke to Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding in Ukraine about the current situation and what to expect from the coming months. Beyond the obvious dangers of a nuclear plant being shelled, there is also anxiety that Russia is trying to connect the facility to the grid in Crimea. If this happens, it’ll be the first time that one country has stolen a nuclear reactor from another. The war has already become very costly for the oligarchs and these costs will only increase with time. When a sufficient number of Putin’s coalition privately turn against the war, this will pressure Putin to end the war or risk his position of power.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>He is a strong believer in a professional army made up of volunteers.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Now the U.S. and European militaries are training Ukrainian forces in Europe.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Center for Strategic and International Studies has found that since 1946, more than half of interstate wars like the one in Ukraine have ended in less than a year, and that when such wars persist for more than a year, they last more than a decade on average.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>It may not be a member of the European Union or Nato, but it is an ally of European powers and has a pro-Western government.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Almost three months on, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. Russia has suffered a series of significant military setbacks that make any victory for them look a much more distant and difficult prospect – but a swift win for Ukraine doesn’t look likely either. As Ukrainian forces continued to hold off Russian advances on Kyiv, President Biden traveled to Brussels on Wednesday for an emergency meeting with other NATO leaders to discuss how to respond to Russia’s assault and help the 3 million Ukrainians who have fled the country.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>One year into the conflict, here are some of your questions about the war answered. Britain is not the only country to be punishing Russia with sanctions - the US has gone further and Germany, for example, has now postponed giving the green light to the massive Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia - but the UK is in the forefront of pushing for penalties. Often described as coldly calculating, like the chess player and judo fighter that he is, his speech on Monday resembled more that of an angry dictator than a shrewd strategist. Let's not forget that Russia and America have, between them, over 8,000 deployable nuclear warheads so the stakes here are stratospherically high.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia’s economy contracted by only a little more than 2 percent last year – far less than expected.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, where this line is and if there are any viable alternatives that would better serve the interests of this coalition is questionable.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In the United States, the intrepid Ukrainian resistance and its battlefield successes soon produced a distinctly upbeat narrative of that country as the righteous David defending the rules and norms of the international order against Putin’s Russian Goliath.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>There are no certain answers to my questions, just ones contingent on unknowable future circumstances.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>In the United States, he noted, everything from industrial policy to diplomatic and military strategy to domestic politics similarly will need to be refashioned for this new conflict. One year ago, Russia launched a war that many never expected it to wage and assumed it would quickly win against a cowed Ukraine and its allies. For a war that has defied expectations, those questions might seem impossible to answer.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>No one can know for sure whether Europe and the United States are headed for a recession, but many economists and business leaders consider it likely.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The morale of the Ukrainians remained high and their military tactics adept.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>“It would have to get pretty bad for the Russians to get there,” he said, adding that there’s no way of knowing how many reserves the government stashed away after years of fat checks from energy sales.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In his office, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told the BBC that "Prigozhin is not the most senior. They might become the new political elite".</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul>
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<p>But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>European security was also fundamentally changed by Russia's invasion on February 24 and many states outside of Russia and Ukraine&nbsp;have a stake in its outcome, analysts said. The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. A ceasefire would give the Ukrainians a reprieve without backing Mr Putin into a corner, preventing a possible&nbsp;escalation in which he resorts to extreme measures such as&nbsp;attacks on Western energy infrastructure or the use of nuclear weapons. All signs are pointing to a renewed push from Russian forces, likely involving thousands of soldiers in battalion and brigade-sized attacks, as Moscow continues to hammer Ukraine's energy network. While Ukrainian forces&nbsp;still have momentum, Russia&nbsp;currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukraine, including&nbsp;much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014.</p><br /><br /><h2>The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world</h2><br /><br /><p>But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was worried by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House, branding Trump's claim that he could stop Ukraine's war with Russia in 24 hours as "very dangerous."</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>If you are reading this page and can't see the form you will need to visit the mobile version of the BBC website to submit your question or comment or you can email us at</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The EU has even taken the unusual step of getting out in front of the United States, with Germany unilaterally suspending its Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline with Russia and the bloc moving first on stronger financial sanctions against Moscow.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russian nationalist voices have&nbsp;already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says&nbsp;Moscow&nbsp;could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its&nbsp;initial invasion.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.</p><br /><br /><h3>Could a Baseball Star Really Flip Dianne Feinstein’s Seat?</h3><br /><br /><p>Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. But the idea that Ukraine can be pressured into some kind of peace is “incorrect” and “denies Ukraine their agency”, said Branislav Slantchev, a professor of politics at the University of California, San Diego, and a specialist in war negotiations and how conflicts end. No indictments or arrest warrants against political and military leaders, including Putin, have been issued in the context of Ukraine so far. But with the situation before the International Criminal Court, this could change. While it will be difficult to execute such warrants, they’re likely to affect negotiations.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Any progress towards&nbsp;talks would likely start with a ceasefire or a similar type of&nbsp;temporary&nbsp;arrangement that would enable both sides to suspend fighting, the analysts suggest.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. In his speech, Bush raised the possibility that the war could divide the country and never formally end – just like with what happened in the Korean Peninsula.</p><br /><br /><h3>News in language</h3><br /><br /><p>The Biden administration has said the war must end before Ukraine can join NATO, because it does not want to risk direct U.S. involvement. But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine?</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>As painful as it is to make compromises in a negotiated&nbsp;settlement, Mr Cancian says&nbsp;Kyiv and Moscow may one day&nbsp;decide peace is the only way forward. "[Russia is] facing three or four generations, 60 or 80 years, of guerilla war, because they're up against a population of 44 million people who are now completely and utterly Ukrainian men," Professor Clarke said. Ukrainian officials believe an emboldened Russia is preparing for another offensive as early as today, having begun the preliminary phase earlier this month. Germany and France have announced more support through air missile systems and&nbsp;AMX-10 RC light armoured vehicles, while the US&nbsp;tipped in another $US3.75 billion in new military assistance last month. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain,"&nbsp;NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned this month. After years spent scaling-back artillery, ammunition and tank investments, Europe has cleared&nbsp;out old warehouses to supply Ukraine&nbsp;with the weapons it wants and needs to fight Russia.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The US, EU, and UK have all assured Ukraine that they will continue to stand with the country.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>It has brought the transatlantic alliance together, even if it is propelling European countries to build more independent capabilities as well, which constitutes a diplomatic win for the Biden administration. Yet the Russian invasion also marks the definitive end of the US-run liberal international order that was founded after the Cold War. Even if Russia is assured of some support, obtaining that assistance will most likely involve giving over its crown jewels, such as energy and minerals assets, to Chinese investors at fire-sale prices now that Western companies are beating down the door to leave the country. Moscow’s deepening dependence on Beijing will no doubt grate on the Russian psyche and spur resentment in China.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Despite Biden’s efforts early in his administration to repair this damage, many Germans and Europeans are appalled by the divisions and partisanship they see in US politics.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ordinary citizens with normal, everyday lives&nbsp;were suddenly making heartbreaking decisions&nbsp;over whether to stay&nbsp;and fight&nbsp;or undertake the treacherous journey to a border crossing.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>US President Joe Biden's recent unannounced trip to Ukraine was also intended to rally NATO support for Ukraine, after insisting there would be no backing down from what he's portrayed as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul>

Latest revision as of 23:44, 23 April 2024

But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said.







European security was also fundamentally changed by Russia's invasion on February 24 and many states outside of Russia and Ukraine have a stake in its outcome, analysts said. The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. A ceasefire would give the Ukrainians a reprieve without backing Mr Putin into a corner, preventing a possible escalation in which he resorts to extreme measures such as attacks on Western energy infrastructure or the use of nuclear weapons. All signs are pointing to a renewed push from Russian forces, likely involving thousands of soldiers in battalion and brigade-sized attacks, as Moscow continues to hammer Ukraine's energy network. While Ukrainian forces still have momentum, Russia currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukraine, including much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014.



The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world



But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.











  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was worried by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House, branding Trump's claim that he could stop Ukraine's war with Russia in 24 hours as "very dangerous."








  • If you are reading this page and can't see the form you will need to visit the mobile version of the BBC website to submit your question or comment or you can email us at








  • After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.








  • The EU has even taken the unusual step of getting out in front of the United States, with Germany unilaterally suspending its Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline with Russia and the bloc moving first on stronger financial sanctions against Moscow.








  • Russian nationalist voices have already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says Moscow could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its initial invasion.










When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.



Could a Baseball Star Really Flip Dianne Feinstein’s Seat?



Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. But the idea that Ukraine can be pressured into some kind of peace is “incorrect” and “denies Ukraine their agency”, said Branislav Slantchev, a professor of politics at the University of California, San Diego, and a specialist in war negotiations and how conflicts end. No indictments or arrest warrants against political and military leaders, including Putin, have been issued in the context of Ukraine so far. But with the situation before the International Criminal Court, this could change. While it will be difficult to execute such warrants, they’re likely to affect negotiations.











  • In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.








  • The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks.








  • It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.








  • The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.








  • Any progress towards talks would likely start with a ceasefire or a similar type of temporary arrangement that would enable both sides to suspend fighting, the analysts suggest.








  • Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.










And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. In his speech, Bush raised the possibility that the war could divide the country and never formally end – just like with what happened in the Korean Peninsula.



News in language



The Biden administration has said the war must end before Ukraine can join NATO, because it does not want to risk direct U.S. involvement. But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine?





As painful as it is to make compromises in a negotiated settlement, Mr Cancian says Kyiv and Moscow may one day decide peace is the only way forward. "[Russia is] facing three or four generations, 60 or 80 years, of guerilla war, because they're up against a population of 44 million people who are now completely and utterly Ukrainian men," Professor Clarke said. Ukrainian officials believe an emboldened Russia is preparing for another offensive as early as today, having begun the preliminary phase earlier this month. Germany and France have announced more support through air missile systems and AMX-10 RC light armoured vehicles, while the US tipped in another $US3.75 billion in new military assistance last month. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned this month. After years spent scaling-back artillery, ammunition and tank investments, Europe has cleared out old warehouses to supply Ukraine with the weapons it wants and needs to fight Russia.











  • The US, EU, and UK have all assured Ukraine that they will continue to stand with the country.








  • Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.








  • The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered.








  • But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war.








  • The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.










It has brought the transatlantic alliance together, even if it is propelling European countries to build more independent capabilities as well, which constitutes a diplomatic win for the Biden administration. Yet the Russian invasion also marks the definitive end of the US-run liberal international order that was founded after the Cold War. Even if Russia is assured of some support, obtaining that assistance will most likely involve giving over its crown jewels, such as energy and minerals assets, to Chinese investors at fire-sale prices now that Western companies are beating down the door to leave the country. Moscow’s deepening dependence on Beijing will no doubt grate on the Russian psyche and spur resentment in China.











  • Despite Biden’s efforts early in his administration to repair this damage, many Germans and Europeans are appalled by the divisions and partisanship they see in US politics.








  • Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.








  • One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.








  • Ordinary citizens with normal, everyday lives were suddenly making heartbreaking decisions over whether to stay and fight or undertake the treacherous journey to a border crossing.








  • US President Joe Biden's recent unannounced trip to Ukraine was also intended to rally NATO support for Ukraine, after insisting there would be no backing down from what he's portrayed as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy.








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