Difference between revisions of "When will the war in Ukraine end And 9 more questions about Russias invasion NPR"

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<p>Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already led to a crisis—not only for Ukraine but also for the Kremlin. As Russian troops have advanced toward Kyiv, the European Union and the United States have responded with dramatic financial punishments that could deep-freeze the Russian economy and send inflation on an upward spiral. We’re still looking at a range of possibilities, including de-escalation and a great-power conflict. While the relief of a ceasefire would be welcome, it could have unwelcome consequences, too. As in the years after the initial invasion of Ukraine, a prolonged stalemate could just give space and capacity for Russia to re-strategise and reinvest in its military – which could ultimately lead to an even lengthier war. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be "devastated" in the process, the strategists said.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>I have a good, safe life and follow events there from the comfort of my New York apartment.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Expect any negotiated settlement to be fragile and reliant on third-party intervention.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>And there have been no shortage of predictions that the invasion will indeed prove Putin’s death knell.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>The morale of the Ukrainians remained high and their military tactics adept. By the end of March, Russia had lost tanks and aircraft worth an estimated $5 billion, not to speak of up to a quarter of the troops it had sent into battle. Its military supply system proved shockingly inept, whether for repairing equipment or delivering food, water, and medical supplies to the front.</p><br /><br /><h2>Turkey arrests 47 alleged IS members over Istanbul church attack</h2><br /><br /><p>But, said Macmillan, “the first world war laid the groundwork that made the second possible”. The danger lay in a humiliating peace treaty imposed on defeated Germany. Meanwhile, Western powers have pledged coveted battle tanks to Ukraine, and there is much talk of a new Russian spring offensive.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on. The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank. However, it is hard to imagine Russia striking very far west, given the painfully slow advance around Bakhmut and the catastrophic attempt to capture Vuhledar. Currently, western intelligence estimates Russia is taking 1,000 casualties a day.</p><br /><br /><p>Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. Ukrainian forces, once equipped and trained for combined arms warfare and tank tactics, will be “designed to punch a hole through a defensive network,” Donahoe predicted. The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use — or simply test — nuclear weapons. At the same time, election season in the United States — Ukraine’s most important backer — stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America.</p><br /><br /><h3>Putin ousted</h3><br /><br /><p>Either the Russian military’s transition to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets succeeds in eroding Ukrainian resistance, or battlefield casualties and domestic economic woes succeed in defeating Russia’s will to fight. Neither outcome is likely in the coming weeks and months, meaning people around the world are left to watch the horrors of war unfold, and wait. Russia would retain its land corridor to Crimea, even if with some concessions to Ukraine. It would receive a guarantee that the water canals flowing southward to that peninsula from the city of Kherson, which would revert to Ukrainian control, would never again be blocked. Russia would not annex the “republics” it created in the Donbas in 2014 and would withdraw from some of the additional land it’s seized there.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, it is hard to imagine Russia striking very far west, given the painfully slow advance around Bakhmut and the catastrophic attempt to capture Vuhledar.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders?</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>However, what was not apparent to Russia until the fighting began is that the Ukrainian people are far more willing to fight than they anticipated.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. [https://squareblogs.net/racingden14/counting-hits-how-many-hits-can-you-get-from-a-good-news-vape-pen https://squareblogs.net/racingden14/counting-hits-how-many-hits-can-you-get-from-a-good-news-vape-pen] of these down with its air defense missiles. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>The old Cold War maxim of "MAD" - Mutually Assured Destruction - still applies. Eastern European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland - once part of Moscow's orbit in Soviet times - are all now Nato members. In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>As the war moves into its sixth month, the end seems no closer.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>It's threatening economic sanctions against Russia if it invades.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>That is the risk that this scenario poses, let alone the challenge of having enough military success to do the conquering.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. To train and equip that larger army would inevitably require more money. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>But it boosts the strength of the professional armed forces, which is often relatively small.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>In his October assessment, Snyder floated one scenario in which Ukrainian military victories prompt a power struggle in Moscow that leads Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, as Putin and his rivals judge that the armed forces loyal to them are most useful on the homefront.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Most U.S. training takes place at U.S. military bases in Germany.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Polls in Ukraine show that the public overwhelmingly rejects concessions to Russia.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year. But the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, warned at the hearing that the current funding level “does not preclude” the administration from needing to request more assistance before the end of September. The recent arms donations — Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles — are predicated on the assumption they’ll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high. That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said. One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively. For now, at least, Ukraine's allies are standing firmly beside it, saying they will support it "whatever it takes" while Russia too is "nowhere near giving up," Barrons said. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. Russia lacks a decisive, breakthrough capability to overrun Ukraine and will do what it can to hold on to what it currently occupies, using the time to strengthen its defences while it hopes for the West to lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>“I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. And they said winning will depend on a Congress with the resolve to ensure continued support to Ukraine. But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned.</p>
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<p>Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that front-line Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance. Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with&nbsp;mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making offensive and reconnaissance operations challenging. Intense fighting continues nonetheless, and particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent, confirmed advances. Hein Goemans Going back to the analogy of the first world war one more time, what really changed attitudes in Germany was the collapse of Bulgaria and Austro-Hungary suing for peace.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, also called for sending long-range missiles to Ukraine alongside advanced Gray Eagle and Reaper drones. “Everything I have come to learn about the will and determination of the Ukrainians leads me to conclude retaking Crimea is within reach, and they need the artillery that will enable hitting targets — the sites of missiles destroying infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said. The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. “I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said.</p><br /><br /><h2>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in maps — latest updates</h2><br /><br /><p>Russian officials often criticise Nato military support for Ukraine and in an interview last week with the BBC the country's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, cited the prospect of Ukraine joining the Western alliance as a reason for the invasion in the first place. While Ukraine’s location has afforded it outsize attention relative to other conflicts, it’s also what makes the prospect of a drawn-out war even more likely. Ukraine, after all, is situated at the doorstep of the European Union and NATO, both of which have a vested interest in ensuring that the country’s sovereignty is maintained and that Russia’s aggression is curtailed. The longer the Russian invasion continues, the greater the refugee crisis that Europe is likely to face, and the riskier the situation becomes for NATO, which has gone to great lengths to avoid being drawn into direct conflict with Russian troops.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>The following day, Italy's Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, speaking at the White House, said people in Europe wanted "to think about the possibility of bringing a ceasefire and starting again some credible negotiations".</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. "Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you're seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians," he said. It didn't, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC. At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.</p><br /><br /><h3>Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia</h3><br /><br /><p>Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. “Either Ukraine keeps fighting with sustained Western support and eventually forces Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine entirely, with the possible exception of Crimea,” he said, referring to the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. He noted, however that this would pre-suppose a Russian military collapse and a change in the country’s leadership – something that could take “a long time to achieve and would necessitate considerably greater military capabilities” than Ukraine currently possesses.</p><br /><br /><ul><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Hein Goemans Well, some people would say yes, because it makes clear that this is a war caused by a commitment problem that no peace deal will stick.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br />  <br /><br /> <li>They can actually, you know, try to recreate trench warfare if they want to.</li><br /><br />  <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /></ul><br /><br /><p>This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. This is a grinding trench and artillery war of attrition. [https://squareblogs.net/racingden14/discovering-rob-nelsons-origin-on-world-news-now https://squareblogs.net/racingden14/discovering-rob-nelsons-origin-on-world-news-now] has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine.</p><br /><br /><h3>When will Ukraine war end? How Putin could be stopped and timeline of Russia’s invasion</h3><br /><br /><p>Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. Footage "of the aftermath of a missile strike that hit Kyiv's main TV tower and a nearby Holocaust memorial showed a gruesome scene of blown-out cars and buildings and several bodies on fire," The Washington Post reports. The southern city of Mariupol suffered 15 hours of relentless shelling, while missiles also bombarded Kharkiv, allowing paratroopers to land in the eastern Ukrainian city. At 3am (UTC) President Vladimir Putin authorised a “special military operation” with troops entering the country from the north, east and south at 5am. Last Sunday, Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear forces be put on high alert, after the West imposed a number of crippling sanctions and which he described as taking “unfriendly” steps against his country. Ukrainian armed forces have fought back with fierce resistance, with Russia failing to take key cities within the first week of its invasion and remove President Volodymyr Zelensky.</p><br /><br /><br /><br /><p>One concern is it could yet extend to other post-Soviet countries such as Moldova and Georgia, both of which, like Ukraine, have Russian-backed breakaway regions within their respective territories. The other, perhaps greater, risk is that Russian aggression could spread even farther afield, to the Baltics, which would not only draw NATO into a potential conflict, but also fundamentally threaten the post–Cold War order. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I.</p><br /><br />

Latest revision as of 05:28, 21 April 2024

Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that front-line Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance. Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making offensive and reconnaissance operations challenging. Intense fighting continues nonetheless, and particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent, confirmed advances. Hein Goemans Going back to the analogy of the first world war one more time, what really changed attitudes in Germany was the collapse of Bulgaria and Austro-Hungary suing for peace.







Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, also called for sending long-range missiles to Ukraine alongside advanced Gray Eagle and Reaper drones. “Everything I have come to learn about the will and determination of the Ukrainians leads me to conclude retaking Crimea is within reach, and they need the artillery that will enable hitting targets — the sites of missiles destroying infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said. The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. “I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said.



Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in maps — latest updates



Russian officials often criticise Nato military support for Ukraine and in an interview last week with the BBC the country's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, cited the prospect of Ukraine joining the Western alliance as a reason for the invasion in the first place. While Ukraine’s location has afforded it outsize attention relative to other conflicts, it’s also what makes the prospect of a drawn-out war even more likely. Ukraine, after all, is situated at the doorstep of the European Union and NATO, both of which have a vested interest in ensuring that the country’s sovereignty is maintained and that Russia’s aggression is curtailed. The longer the Russian invasion continues, the greater the refugee crisis that Europe is likely to face, and the riskier the situation becomes for NATO, which has gone to great lengths to avoid being drawn into direct conflict with Russian troops.











  • It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both.








  • The following day, Italy's Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, speaking at the White House, said people in Europe wanted "to think about the possibility of bringing a ceasefire and starting again some credible negotiations".








  • Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies.








  • Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured.










Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. "Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you're seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians," he said. It didn't, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC. At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.



Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia



Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. “Either Ukraine keeps fighting with sustained Western support and eventually forces Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine entirely, with the possible exception of Crimea,” he said, referring to the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. He noted, however that this would pre-suppose a Russian military collapse and a change in the country’s leadership – something that could take “a long time to achieve and would necessitate considerably greater military capabilities” than Ukraine currently possesses.











  • Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.








  • Hein Goemans Well, some people would say yes, because it makes clear that this is a war caused by a commitment problem that no peace deal will stick.








  • Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.








  • Ukraine shoots most of these down with its air defense missiles.








  • They can actually, you know, try to recreate trench warfare if they want to.










This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. This is a grinding trench and artillery war of attrition. https://squareblogs.net/racingden14/discovering-rob-nelsons-origin-on-world-news-now has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine.



When will Ukraine war end? How Putin could be stopped and timeline of Russia’s invasion



Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. Footage "of the aftermath of a missile strike that hit Kyiv's main TV tower and a nearby Holocaust memorial showed a gruesome scene of blown-out cars and buildings and several bodies on fire," The Washington Post reports. The southern city of Mariupol suffered 15 hours of relentless shelling, while missiles also bombarded Kharkiv, allowing paratroopers to land in the eastern Ukrainian city. At 3am (UTC) President Vladimir Putin authorised a “special military operation” with troops entering the country from the north, east and south at 5am. Last Sunday, Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear forces be put on high alert, after the West imposed a number of crippling sanctions and which he described as taking “unfriendly” steps against his country. Ukrainian armed forces have fought back with fierce resistance, with Russia failing to take key cities within the first week of its invasion and remove President Volodymyr Zelensky.





One concern is it could yet extend to other post-Soviet countries such as Moldova and Georgia, both of which, like Ukraine, have Russian-backed breakaway regions within their respective territories. The other, perhaps greater, risk is that Russian aggression could spread even farther afield, to the Baltics, which would not only draw NATO into a potential conflict, but also fundamentally threaten the post–Cold War order. One reason that countries such as Germany have been reluctant to send heavier weapons to the Ukrainians is that Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation. Just ask Austria's Archduke Franz Ferdinand, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I.