Ukraine How might the war end Five scenarios

But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said.

European security was also fundamentally changed by Russia's invasion on February 24 and many states outside of Russia and Ukraine have a stake in its outcome, analysts said. The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. A ceasefire would give the Ukrainians a reprieve without backing Mr Putin into a corner, preventing a possible escalation in which he resorts to extreme measures such as attacks on Western energy infrastructure or the use of nuclear weapons. All signs are pointing to a renewed push from Russian forces, likely involving thousands of soldiers in battalion and brigade-sized attacks, as Moscow continues to hammer Ukraine's energy network. While Ukrainian forces still have momentum, Russia currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukraine, including much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014.

The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world

But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was worried by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House, branding Trump's claim that he could stop Ukraine's war with Russia in 24 hours as "very dangerous."









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• After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.









• The EU has even taken the unusual step of getting out in front of the United States, with Germany unilaterally suspending its Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline with Russia and the bloc moving first on stronger financial sanctions against Moscow.









• Russian nationalist voices have already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says Moscow could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its initial invasion.

When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies. Now, a collection of Western tank-type vehicles is slated to arrive on the front lines this spring, with training already underway in donor countries.

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Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. But the idea that Ukraine can be pressured into some kind of peace is “incorrect” and “denies Ukraine their agency”, said Branislav Slantchev, a professor of politics at the University of California, San Diego, and a specialist in war negotiations and how conflicts end. No indictments or arrest warrants against political and military leaders, including Putin, have been issued in the context of Ukraine so far. But with the situation before the International Criminal Court, this could change. While it will be difficult to execute such warrants, they’re likely to affect negotiations.

• In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.









• The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks.









• It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.









• The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.









• Any progress towards talks would likely start with a ceasefire or a similar type of temporary arrangement that would enable both sides to suspend fighting, the analysts suggest.









• Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.

And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Ukraine's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents. In his speech, Bush raised the possibility that the war could divide the country and never formally end – just like with what happened in the Korean Peninsula.

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The Biden administration has said the war must end before Ukraine can join NATO, because it does not want to risk direct U.S. involvement. But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine?

As painful as it is to make compromises in a negotiated settlement, Mr Cancian says Kyiv and Moscow may one day decide peace is the only way forward. "[Russia is] facing three or four generations, 60 or 80 years, of guerilla war, because they're up against a population of 44 million people who are now completely and utterly Ukrainian men," Professor Clarke said. Ukrainian officials believe an emboldened Russia is preparing for another offensive as early as today, having begun the preliminary phase earlier this month. Germany and France have announced more support through air missile systems and AMX-10 RC light armoured vehicles, while the US tipped in another $US3.75 billion in new military assistance last month. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned this month. After years spent scaling-back artillery, ammunition and tank investments, Europe has cleared out old warehouses to supply Ukraine with the weapons it wants and needs to fight Russia.

• The US, EU, and UK have all assured Ukraine that they will continue to stand with the country.









• Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.









• The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered.









• But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war.









• The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

It has brought the transatlantic alliance together, even if it is propelling European countries to build more independent capabilities as well, which constitutes a diplomatic win for the Biden administration. Yet the Russian invasion also marks the definitive end of the US-run liberal international order that was founded after the Cold War. Even if Russia is assured of some support, obtaining that assistance will most likely involve giving over its crown jewels, such as energy and minerals assets, to Chinese investors at fire-sale prices now that Western companies are beating down the door to leave the country. Moscow’s deepening dependence on Beijing will no doubt grate on the Russian psyche and spur resentment in China.

• Despite Biden’s efforts early in his administration to repair this damage, many Germans and Europeans are appalled by the divisions and partisanship they see in US politics.









• Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.









• One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.









• Ordinary citizens with normal, everyday lives were suddenly making heartbreaking decisions over whether to stay and fight or undertake the treacherous journey to a border crossing.









• US President Joe Biden's recent unannounced trip to Ukraine was also intended to rally NATO support for Ukraine, after insisting there would be no backing down from what he's portrayed as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy.