Kremlin Denies Report Putin Reached Out to the US About Ending Ukraine War

The Biden administration continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated. “President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby. For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow. Many experts I consulted were pessimistic about the prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war in the foreseeable future.

• The Russian pull-out from Kherson has partly led me to this conclusion.









• Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.









• And Kyiv will likely also try to spring more military surprises on the Russian invaders to knock them off balance in some areas.









• Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority.

It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. Senior Ukrainian officials who spoke to the BBC here in Kyiv all argued that President Putin could not ride out a catastrophic loss of authority. "I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser. The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.

Which weapons will Washington send?

And Russia, as a much larger country, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a significant economic player, “is no North Korea” and “can’t and will not be isolated,” she noted. The forecasting firm Good Judgment’s superforecasters, a global network of about 180 experts in various fields with a strong track record, tend to “see a long slog coming” in Ukraine, CEO Warren Hatch told me. Some of the superforecasters, however, point to key differences between this war and past conflicts that they believe could produce a faster resolution—including the degree to which the West is arming Ukraine and punishing Russia economically. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking.

• The debates still rages about whether an earlier tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut would have made sense.









• "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.









• It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.









• Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine.

One reason why the effects may be contained might be the speed with which the crisis came and went. This was at the dog end of the costly and unimpressive Russian offensives of the first part of the year. Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. This was probably the period of maximum unease on the Russian side.

More than a year of fighting

Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukrainian rear will complete this war of attrition strategy. We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat. Things will move slower over the winter but there's no doubt that Ukraine's forces will be better able to cope than Russia's because of all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany.

Speaking on national TV, he suggested his country could be victorious against Russia on the battlefield. "It's to send in non-uniformed troops to stir up trouble, part of 'sub-threshold warfare'. I'm worried it will spill over into the Baltics." "This is a massive wake-up call for Europe," says Tobias Ellwood, MP and chairman of the UK Parliament's Defence Committee.

WASHINGTON & POLITICS

Russia's forces outnumber Ukraine's by more than three-to-one, and there are questions about the quality of Ukraine's military leadership and how long its forces can hold out. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the United States and its allies will continue paying for Ukraine’s offensive operations for as long as it takes. Getting Biden’s recent supplemental funding request for Ukraine through the House of Representatives will be hard, and that money would last only through early 2024. Putin knows that the leading Republican candidate for president next year, former President Donald Trump, would end U.S. support for Ukraine, and that there are others like him in Europe. At the same time, if we’re honest, we have to acknowledge that Ukraine may not achieve total military success in the next year or two. The Russian military, though battered and demoralized, has remained resilient, even against advanced Western weapons and tactics.