Thursday briefing The weeks that could decide fate of Ukraine conflict Ukraine

Under this scenario, Russia escalates its military operations. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile.

• It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders.









• From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine.









• The possibility of negotiations with Putin has been raised in France, Italy, and Germany.









• Yet when we try to envisage a peace agreement, no plausible scenario emerges.









• "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted.

And that has direct consequences for the future of the war in Ukraine. Some observers have suggested that continued defeats on the battlefield might result in Putin’s downfall. After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes. A protracted and costly World War I helped usher in the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.

After the Ukraine war, what comes next? NATO allies don't agree

Although Putin attempted to build up a financial bulwark that would allow him to protect the interests of the oligarchs, the sanctions imposed by the west have undercut most of his efforts. Before the war, Putin pushed for a neutral Ukraine that would foreswear all military alliances. That alliance’s decision, at its 2008 Bucharest summit, to open the door to that country (and Georgia) was irrevocable. A month after the Russian invasion began, Zelensky put neutrality on the table, but it was too late.

Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. Prepare for the possibility of a long, shape-shifting conflict, perhaps lasting years, even a decade or more.

What are the Ukrainian refugees who fled their country doing now? Are they able to get jobs in their host countries? — Laurel

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.

• For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability.









• “Essentially once the West made a decision that Ukraine is important … it had to support them to the end, and that means the Ukrainians are the ones who will decide when they’re going to stop,” he said.









• Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.









• The money Congress has already approved will help cover Ukraine's needs for the next several months.









• People often accuse Putin of wanting to resurrect the Soviet Union.

If we see the average Ukrainian’s willingness to suffer and fight lagging, it should give us cause for concern. To this end, western governments have stepped up humanitarian and defensive aid to Ukraine, in order to ensure that Ukrainian support for the war endures. In a matter of days, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has escalated to one of the biggest military conflicts in Europe since the second world war. The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last. While no one can provide definitive answers, academic research on war gives us some insights into how the conflict in Ukraine might unfold.

Around 80% of the male population complete some form of military service. https://bagge-albrechtsen.mdwrite.net/downed-plane-still-unanswered-questions-amid-ukraine-and-russia-claims can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too. But others have responded by "prepping for war" - stocking food and fuel. There is a sense in the upper echelons of the British military that many politicians and most of the public have not grasped the threat they see.

• The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last.









• As Ukrainian forces continued to hold off Russian advances on Kyiv, President Biden traveled to Brussels on Wednesday for an emergency meeting with other NATO leaders to discuss how to respond to Russia’s assault and help the 3 million Ukrainians who have fled the country.









• Its military supply system proved shockingly inept, whether for repairing equipment or delivering food, water, and medical supplies to the front.

President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. The Brookings Institution’s Fiona Hill, a senior director for European and Russian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, also pointed to the Kremlin’s imperial aspirations as a key indicator to watch, but added that these could be thwarted by developments off the battlefield. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further.