Ukraine fears that the war will end in a divided country like North and South Korea International

The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels. "A successful attack on such a terminal not only causes economic damage to the enemy, depriving the occupiers of the opportunity to earn money to wage war in Ukraine, but also significantly complicates the logistics of fuel for the Russian military." Moscow accused Kyiv of launching a missile strike on the market in Donetsk, killing at least 25 people and injuring 20 others, and described the incident as a terrorist attack.

• In its current phase, the conflict appears to have become a war of attrition.









• One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.









• The Russian leader's future may depend on the country's powerful security forces, such as those led by Yevgeny Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.









• The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks.









• Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.

Russia, however, accuses Ukraine of derailing the peace process by failing to introduce that special status as well as holding local elections as required by the Minsk agreements. Relations with China are critical for Russia economically and, perhaps even more so, diplomatically. Otherwise Moscow would find itself only in the company of other pariah states such as Iran, North Korea, Myanmar and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of a change of heart in the Kremlin or the Russian defence ministry about the winnability of the war in Ukraine. As long as this illusion prevails, Russia will be able to muster the resources not to lose.

Putin ousted

Most peace agreements have been facilitated by third parties in some way. Peace mediators don’t necessarily have to be perfectly neutral and unbiased. Close relationships with one or both conflict parties may actually help. Mediators are called in when a conflict is too complex for the parties to resolve by themselves, as in family disputes for instance. Trying to end wars is, obviously, very complex and requires certain expertise. There have even been initiatives to adopt a new international treaty to create a stronger framework and more guidance for peace negotiators.

“This war will last indefinitely, with long pauses for cease-fires,” he said. WASHINGTON and ROME — Germany’s promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the country’s latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. "They understand the wider strategic point, which is that this is a confrontation between the West and Russia and at stake is not just the future territorial integrity of Ukraine but the security construct for Europe and the West with Russia," he noted. Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said.

How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures.

Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russia’s attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the newly appointed Russian General Sergey Surovikin plans to build a solid line of defense in occupied territories and effectively freeze the war over the winter. However, a total Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die. Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, though US intel and military experts have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill. Though the chances of him being overthrown in a coup are perhaps higher than ever, experts have previously said the Russian leader has made his regime "coup-proof" through a culture of distrust among Russia's intelligence agencies. But despite Russia's strongman facing discontent at home due to rising war casualties, the partial mobilization of reservists, and an economy damaged by sanctions, he appears to show no signs of backing down.

Western backing

But if Joe Biden is defeated in the US presidential election in 2024 by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could pose serious questions for Ukraine’s war effort. The US has provided €44bn ($46bn) of military support to Ukraine, and Europe (including the UK) €18.7bn, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute. The undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, told the Senate in January the Biden administration still expects the $45 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in December to last through the end of this fiscal year.

• Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.









• Russian nationalist voices have already expressed skepticism in Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive, but Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, says Moscow could "try something" to mark the anniversary of its initial invasion.









• The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all of whom are already committed to Ukraine.









• After all, Russian defeats in the Crimean War in the 19th century, and losses to Japan and in Afghanistan in the 20th century, all catalysed profound domestic changes.